RBNZ MPS: Summary Of Economic Projections

Wednesday, 20 March 2002, 9:11 am
Press Release: Reserve Bank

Table 1
Summary of economic projections
(Annual percentage change, unless specified otherwise)

::::Actuals:::: Projections
March year::::2001::::2002::::2003::::2004::::2005

Price measures
::::CPI*::::3.1::::3::::21/4::::2::::13/4
::::Wages::::3.1::::31/4::::31/4::::23/4::::21/2
::::Import prices (in New Zealand dollars)::::7.4::::-3::::-11/2::::2::::11/2
::::Export prices (in New Zealand dollars)::::20.1::::-83/4::::-51/4::::23/4::::13/4

Monetary conditions
::::90-day bank bill rate (year average)::::6.6::::51/4::::6::::6::::51/2
::::TWI (year average)::::50.4::::501/4::::521/4::::541/4::::561/4

Output
::::GDP (production, annual average % change)::::2.7::::3::::23/4::::21/4::::21/2
::::GDP (production, March qtr to March qtr)::::1.0::::31/2::::3::::2::::21/2
::::Output gap (% of potential GDP, year average)::::0.3:::: 3/4:::: 1/2::::0::::-1/2

Labour market
::::Total employment::::2.3::::21/4::::2::::13/4::::11/4
::::Unemployment rate (March qtr, s.a.)::::5.4::::51/4::::51/4::::51/4::::51/4
::::Labour productivity (annual average % change)::::1.3::::11/2:::: 3/4:::: 1/4::::1

Key balances
::::Government operating balance
::::(% of GDP, year to June)::::1.2::::1::::21/4::::23/4::::23/4
::::Current account balance
::::(% of GDP, year to March)::::-4.8::::-31/4::::-43/4::::-41/2::::-4
::::Terms of trade (annual average % change)::::3.6::::31/4::::-7:::: 1/4:::: 1/2
::::Household savings rate
::::(% of disposable income, year to March)::::-3.7::::-23/4::::-41/2::::-33/4::::-4

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World economy
::::World GDP (annual average % change)::::3.5::::1::::21/2::::31/2::::31/2
::::World CPI inflation::::2.3::::1::::11/2::::2::::21/4

Quarterly projections::::Jun-01::::Sep-01::::Dec-01::::Mar-02::::Jun-02

::::CPI (quarterly percentage change)::::0.9::::0.6::::0.6::::0.9::::0.7
::::CPI (annual percentage change)::::3.2::::2.4::::1.8::::3.0::::2.8

e = estimate.
s.a. = seasonally adjusted
*::::This series is annual CPIX inflation until the June 1999 quarter, and annual CPI inflation thereafter (adjusted by Statistics New Zealand to exclude interest and section prices from the September 1999 quarter to the June 2000 quarter).

Notes for this table are in Appendix 5

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