NBR-Compaq UMR Insight Poll - Full Breakdown

NATIONAL BUSINESS REVIEW
Poll 109
[September 2000]

UMR Insight Limited

METHODOLOGY

The UMR Insight omnibus is a telephone survey of a nationally representative sample of 750 New Zealanders 18 years of age or older. Fieldwork was conducted from 7 September to 10 September 2000 at UMR Insight’s national interview facility in Auckland. The margin of error for a 50% figure at the ‘95% confidence level’ is +/- 3.6%.

SUMMARY

National 41% up 6
Labour 36% down 3

Green 7% up 1
Alliance 6% static
ACT 4% down 3
NZ First 3% static

QUESTION: Under MMP you have two votes one for the candidate in the electorate you live in, and the second for a party. Thinking about this party vote only, if the general election were held today which party would you vote for?

::::::::::::::::::::: The NZ
::::::::::::::::Base National Labour Alliance First ACT Green Other
TOTAL RESPONDENTS:::: 638::::40.5% 35.9%::::6.1% 3.0% 3.7% 6.8% 4.0%

AREA
Auckland::::::::::::179::::36.8% 39.0%::::5.7% 1.9% 5.7% 7.8% 3.1%
Provincial:::::::: 302::::42.6% 32.3%::::6.1% 4.5% 3.5% 5.9% 5.1%
Christchurch:::::::: 78::::38.2% 40.5%::::5.0% 1.5% 1.2% 10.8% 2.8%
Wellington:::::::: 79::::43.8% 37.5%::::8.2% 1.2% 2.3% 4.1% 2.9%

SEX
Male:::::::::::: 331::::39.6% 33.9%::::7.3% 2.6% 5.1% 8.1% 3.4%
Female::::::::::::307::::41.6% 37.9%::::4.9% 3.4% 2.1% 5.5% 4.6%

AGE GROUP
18-19:::::::::::: 19::::35.9% 46.5%::::5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.2%
20-24:::::::::::: 40::::31.2% 31.1% 15.5% 0.0% 6.4% 15.8% 0.0%
25-29:::::::::::: 35::::33.2% 39.1% 11.1% 2.6% 2.6% 8.3% 3.1%
30-34:::::::::::: 78::::44.2% 27.2%::::5.7% 1.5% 1.7% 12.6% 7.1%
35-39:::::::::::: 68::::45.5% 30.4%::::6.1% 0.0% 5.1% 6.3% 6.6%
40-44:::::::::::: 98::::36.7% 37.3%::::4.2% 1.2% 4.0% 10.0% 6.6%
45-49:::::::::::: 57::::41.2% 37.7%::::2.6% 2.0% 6.9% 5.8% 3.8%
50-54:::::::::::: 69::::44.2% 37.0%::::4.3% 3.3% 3.8% 5.8% 1.6%
55-59:::::::::::: 53::::51.0% 36.9%::::5.6% 4.0% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0%
60 Plus::::::::::::121::::37.5% 40.4%::::6.5% 8.5% 2.8% 2.5% 1.8%

PERSONAL INCOME BEFORE TAX
Less than $15,000:::: 150::::29.1% 41.1%::::8.2% 4.6% 0.9% 8.1% 8.0%
$15,001-25,000::::::::98::::31.9% 39.7% 11.6% 2.3% 3.6% 7.5% 3.4%
$25,001-30,000::::::::77::::39.4% 31.1%::::7.8% 7.2% 3.1% 5.6% 5.8%
$30,001-40,000::::::::80::::44.0% 40.1%::::3.3% 1.4% 2.8% 8.4% 0.0%
$40,001-50,000::::::::54::::52.5% 24.1%::::2.7% 0.0% 14.4% 6.3% 0.0%
$50,001-70,000::::::::51::::51.9% 38.6%::::2.9% 2.2% 2.6% 0.0% 1.8%
More than $70,000:::: 40::::56.9% 31.3%::::0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 3.0% 0.0%

Generally speaking are things in New Zealand heading in the right direction or are they off on the wrong track?

::::::::::::::::::::::::::::Right
::::::::::::::::::::Base :::Direction:::Wrong Track:::: Unsure
TOTAL RESPONDENTS:::::::: 750::::::::33%:::::::55%:::::::12%

AREA
Auckland:::::::::::::::208::::::::34%:::::::53%:::::::13%
Provincial:::::::::::: 365::::::::30%:::::::58%:::::::12%
Christchurch:::::::::::: 95::::::::35%:::::::56%::::::::9%
Wellington:::::::::::: 82::::::::39%:::::::49%:::::::12%

SEX
Male:::::::::::::::: 375::::::::36%:::::::53%:::::::11%
Female:::::::::::::::: 375::::::::29%:::::::58%:::::::13%

AGE GROUP
18-19:::::::::::::::: 19::::::::47%:::::::37%:::::::16%
20-24:::::::::::::::: 44::::::::43%:::::::50%::::::::7%
25-29:::::::::::::::: 43::::::::28%:::::::56%:::::::16%
30-34:::::::::::::::: 85::::::::29%:::::::57%:::::::14%
35-39:::::::::::::::: 86::::::::35%:::::::52%:::::::13%
40-44:::::::::::::::: 107::::::::32%:::::::60%::::::::8%
45-49:::::::::::::::: 64::::::::34%:::::::53%:::::::13%
50-54:::::::::::::::: 84::::::::33%:::::::62%::::::::5%
55-59:::::::::::::::: 65::::::::26%:::::::63%:::::::11%
60 Plus::::::::::::::::153::::::::32%:::::::50%:::::::18%

PERSONAL INCOME BEFORE TAX
Less than $15,000:::::::: 176::::::::34%:::::::50%:::::::16%
$15,001-25,000::::::::::::118::::::::40%:::::::52%::::::::8%
$25,001-30,000::::::::::::86::::::::26%:::::::59%:::::::15%
$30,001-40,000::::::::::::92::::::::35%:::::::55%:::::::10%
$40,001-50,000::::::::::::56::::::::37%:::::::52%:::::::11%
$50,001-70,000::::::::::::60::::::::36%:::::::57%::::::::7%
More than $70,000:::::::: 45::::::::24%:::::::69%::::::::7%

QUESTION: As you may know under MMP you have two votes, one for the candidate in the electorate you live in and the second for a party. Thinking about this party vote only, if the general election were held today which party would you vote for?

PARTY: JUN 99 JUL 99 AUG 99 SEP 99 OCT 99 NOV 99 ELECTION 99 JAN 00 FEB 00 MAR 00 APR 00 MAY 00 JUN 00 JUL 00 AUG 00 SEP 00

Christian Heritage 1.7 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.9 1.8 2.4 2.1 1.7 1.2 2.2 1.2 1.9 1.6 0.6 1.2
Christian Democrats/Future NZ 0.3 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.5 1.1 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.1 0.7
ALCP 0.6 - 0.2 0.3 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.5 1.0 0.4 - - 0.3 0.1 1.3 0.3
“Maori Party” - - - - - 0.3 - - - 0.2 - - 0.5 - - -
United - 0.2 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.3 - 0.9 - 0.3 0.3 0.7 - -
Other 1.7 1.3 1.9 1.3 2.1 0.8 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.1 0.6 1.4 0.8 1.8

ENDS

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