Local Govt | National News Video | Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Search

 

Failure to acknowledge backdowns in latest IPCC climate repo

The New Zealand

Climate Science Coalition
Hon Secretary, Terry Dunleavy MBE,

29  September 2013     FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Failure to acknowledge backdowns in latest IPCC climate report

The failure of UN and New Zealand and other government officials to acknowledge the backdown from earlier scaremongering claims about future global climate behaviour has been criticised by Hon Barry Brill, chairman of the New Zealand Climate Science Coalition.

“Even worse, has been the misleading emphasis on scaremongering by certain elements of the news media, whose apparent penchant for unjustified sensationalism has overcome their responsibility for truthful interpretation. This was exemplified by TV One news on Saturday night implying chimney emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) that could only have been steam, since CO2 is both a colourless and odourless trace gas.”

He was referring to reports of the summary for policymakers (SPM) of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the basic science Working Group (WG1) for the Fifth Assessment Report (5AR), negotiated in Stockholm last week and released on Friday night.

“IPCC produces periodic reports on the science and policy relevant to dangerous anthropogenic global warming (DAGW). These are intended to guide all UN members and the annual conferences of the parties (COPs) which endlessly attempt to negotiate global binding treaties to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.



“These technical reports run to thousands of pages and are barely comprehensible. The SPM, about 50 pages long, is constructed for the world’s media and politicians. The line-by-line wording of this document is negotiated ‘by consensus’ by bureaucrats representing the Environment Ministries of about a hundred member countries, said Mr Brill.

He said news media have failed to direct public attention to IPCC backdowns, such as:

•       There is no longer any IPCC consensus on the best estimate of climate sensitivity. This is the single most important figure in climate science and has been fixed at 3°C for over 30 years. However, all recent scientific papers have found that it should be approximately halved. The government representatives in Stockholm failed to reach any agreement.

•       The range of values for climate sensitivity is lowered. The SPM has reduced the lower end from 2°C (in the 2007 report) to 1.5°C.

•       The 16-year temperature standstill or “pause” is officially recognised (if reluctantly). The Stockholm meeting removed a statement from the scientists that the IPCC models had failed to pick up the lower warming of the past 15 years. However, The Economist points out that the SPM figures are only 25% of those in the 2007 report.

•       The anthropogenic share of past warming is reduced from “most” to “more than half”. Many in the science community had interpreted “most” as meaning 90%+. The new wording clarifies that natural causes have been under-estimated.

•        Warming for the next 100 years will likely be similar to the last 100 years. Most scenarios point to 1.5°C between 1900 and 2100. Half of that occurred in the 20th century.

•       Temperatures through to 2100 are expected to remain below the 2°C threshold. Economic models show that net benefits accrue from warming until the 2°C threshold is reached.

•        Sea level rise this century is predicted to be non-threatening. Until 2100, the global average is expected to be between 1mm and 2mm per year. There has been no acceleration in recent centuries.

•      No AGW connection to droughts or tropical cyclones. The IPCC has previously debunked suggestions by activists that the frequency or intensity of cyclones, hurricanes, tornadoes, droughts, etc, are connected to human-caused warming. That view is repeated in the SPM, although increased warm spells and possible heavier rainfall is predicted.

“Overall, the SPM indicates a more cautious approach than was seen in 2007. That was probably inevitable, given the absence of any explanations for the temperature ‘pause’ which has persisted since 1996,” Mr Brill concluded.

ENDS

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Regional Headlines

SCOOP COVERAGE: CHRISTCHURCH MOSQUES TERROR ATTACK


RBNZ Act Review: Govt Plans Deposit Guarantee Scheme

The Coalition Government today announced moves to make New Zealand’s banking system safer for customers through a new deposit protection regime, and work to strengthen accountability for banks’ actions.

The in-principle decisions are part of Phase 2 of the Review of the Reserve Bank Act, which is making sure the 30-year old laws regulating our banking system are up to scratch. More>>

ALSO:

 
 

Stats NZ: Gender Inclusive Questions Introduced

More than 28,000 New Zealand households will be asked to take part in the upcoming Household Economic Survey. Starting this year, the survey will ask people to describe their gender – whether that is male, female, or if they see themselves another way, such as one of many non-binary genders. More>>

New Report: Are We Listening To Children?

A report released today is a sharp reminder that what children and young people say makes a difference, and that it’s time we paid more attention to their views, says Children’s Commissioner Andrew Becroft. More>>

ALSO:

The Nation: Canadian Euthanasia Practitioner Stefanie Green

The euthanasia debate is progressing, with the End of Life Choice Bill expected to have its second reading in Parliament on Wednesday. A similar bill was passed in Canada in 2016 ... More>>

ALSO:

Gordon Campbell: On The Gun Buy-Back Scheme

Do gun amnesties and buy-backs save lives? Since it’s always difficult to exclude all of the socio-economic factors that may be operating in parallel, the die-hard denialists in the gun lobby will always be able to find a bit of wiggle room. More>>

ALSO:

Gordon Campbell: On The New Op Burnham Revelations

Eight centuries ago at Beziers in France, the papal soldiers besieging the town faced much the same problem as the New Zealand troops engaged in Operation Burnham – namely, how to how to tell the difference among the town’s inhabitants as to which were Cathar heretics, and which were true Catholics... More>>

ALSO:

World Refugee Day: Former Refugees Say Policy Must Change

This year, 1000 refugees will be able to resettle here in New Zealand - but there are restrictions on where those people can come from. More>>

ALSO:

The Lobbyist Staffer: PM Defends Handling Of Conflicts Of Interest

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says she's comfortable with the way her interim chief of staff's conflicts of interest were managed. More>>

ALSO:

 
 
 
 
 

LATEST HEADLINES

  • PARLIAMENT
  • POLITICS
  • REGIONAL
 
 

InfoPages News Channels