Media release

3 October 2013

Auckland Mayoralty race close in mid-voting exit poll

A mid-election poll shows only a 4% gap between Auckland Mayoral candidates Len Brown and John Palino.

Mr Brown has secured 37.4% of votes cast up until October 2, Mr Palino 33%.

The outcome will depend on how many of the super city’s voters will post back or return ballots before voting closes at noon on Saturday October 12.

If all those who are both registered and say they are 100% likely to vote actually do vote Mr Brown would win over Mr Palino by 8.3%. (Brown 38.2%, Palino 29.9%).

The exit and likely vote results are from a Horizon Research survey of 1,072 Aucklanders aged 18+, conducted between 3pm October 1 and midnight October 2, 2013. Results are weighted by age, gender, ethnicity, educational status, personal income and party vote 2011 to provide a representative sample of the Auckland adult population. At a 95% confidence level, the maximum margin of error is +/- 3%.

The poll has been conducted independently in the public interest and not for any candidate.

Horizon Research says a lower turn out so far is favouring Mr Palino.

Getting voters out will be key to the success of either main contenders’ campaigns.

Those yet to vote favour Mr Brown more than Mr Palino. Of those yet to vote 20.5% are still undecided.

Those yet to vote and who are still undecided are leaning 19.5% to Mr Palino, 12.4% to Mr Brown. However, when the undecided are filtered by those who say they are 100% likely to vote, they lean 8.4% to Mr Brown and 5.8% to Mr Palino.

A Horizon June 13-21 poll of 1,106 adult Aucklanders, found a 12% gap between Messrs Brown and Palino when respondents were given a choice of them, Mana Party candidate Mr John Minto and others.

The Mayoralty election is a two horse race to date.

Mr Minto has won 3.6% of votes cast up until midnight October 2, Uesifili Unasa 2.4%, Rueben Shadbolt 2.3% and Penny Bright 2%.

Among those who had voted by October 3, Mr Brown was winning in five of the seven former cities which make up the new super city.

Mr Palino was winning Franklin – and enjoying overwhelming support on the North Shore.

The result was close in Rodney and East Auckland (Pakuranga, Howick, Botany and Whitford).

The closer mid-election result in South Auckland (32.8% Brown, 27.4% Palino) could indicate Mr Brown has yet to get voters out there.

Full results tables are attached and available at www.horizonpoll.co.nz

The survey was conducted using the HorizonPoll online panel, representing the adult population at the 2006 census.

ENDS

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