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Wellington housing market now rising faster than Auckland

STRICLY EMBARGOED UNTIL 12 NOON OCTOBER 4, 2016

Wellington housing market now rising faster than Auckland

The latest monthly QV House Price Index shows that nationwide residential property values for September have increased 14.3% over the past year. Values rose by 4.9% over the past three months and are now 49.5% above the previous market peak of late 2007. When adjusted for inflation the nationwide annual increase drops slightly to 13.8% and values are now 27.0% above the 2007 peak. The average value nationwide is $619,660.

The Auckland market has increased 15.0% year on year and 5.8% over the past three months. Values there are now 88.7% higher than the previous peak of 2007. When adjusted for inflation values rose 14.5% over the past year and are 60.2% above the 2007 peak. The average value for the Auckland Region is $1,031,253.

The full set of QV House Price Index statistics for all New Zealand for September can be downloaded by clicking this link: QV House Price Index (HPI) for September 2016.


QV National Spokesperson Andrea Rush said, ““The Wellington market continues to show strong levels of activity and demand. Values in the capital have risen faster than the Auckland region over the past three months and year on year.”

“Despite a clear slowing in activity and demand in the Auckland, Hamilton and Tauranga markets since the introduction of the new LVR restrictions for investors, we are seeing little evidence of a slow-down in value growth in these main centres.”

“The Dunedin market remains buoyant and values there continue to rise steadily with Auckland investors having an increasing presence, while the Christchurch market remains relatively stable in terms of value growth by comparison.”

“Queenstown Lakes District has seen the highest annual rate of value growth of anywhere in the country, rising 30.7% since September last year.”

“Many regional centres around the country also continue to experience strong value growth with Western Bay of Plenty, Rotorua, Kawerau, the Hauraki District, Whangarei, Napier, Hastings and Nelson markets some of the stand out regional performers.”

“Centres with entry level properties under $350,000 appear less impacted by the new LVR restrictions most likely due to the fact the new 40% deposit requirement for investment properties is easier to achieve at a lower price point.”

“The only areas to see a decrease in values over the past year were the South Island West Coast districts of Buller, Grey and Westland and South Western suburbs of Christchurch.”

Auckland
Home values across the Auckland region have continued to rise over the past three months however there are early indications the rate of growth in the market is starting to slow in that the annual growth has slipped back 0.9% over the past month.

The former Auckland City Council central suburbs have increased by 13.0% over the past year and 4.2% over the past three months .The average value there is now $1,194,608. Values in the former North Shore City suburbs also rose 14.8% year on year and 6.3% over the past three months and the average value there is now $1,207,974. Manukau suburbs were up by 17.5% year on year and 6.4% over the past three months, the average value there is now $895,932. Waitakere City rose 14.5% year on year and 6.9% over the past three months. The average value in the western suburbs is now $824,528.

QV National Spokesperson Andrea Rush said, “We have seen a stabilisation of prices in parts of Auckland since the new LVR rules, requiring a 40% deposit from investors purchasing existing housing stock, were imposed.”

“We are also seeing a shift in demand from the investor housing stock to properties with higher density development potential, which suggests some buyers may be getting the message that upward growth around existing town centres will eventually happen under the new unitary plan.”

“Activity in the upper end of the market, above $1.5 million, and in the new build market (where the 40% LVR doesn’t apply), also remains strong and we continue to see strong value growth in this part of the market.”


Hamilton
Home values across Hamilton City have risen 27.1% year on year and 7.5% over the past three months. The average value in the city is now $529,236.

QV homevalue Hamilton Valuer, Stephen Hare said, “Demand for residential property in Hamilton appears to be decreasing currently with fewer buyers attending open homes and lower clearance rates at auctions.”

“This appears to be due to there being fewer investors active in the market since the introduction of the new LVR restrictions which are definitely having an impact, in that we are seeing less competition and it’s likely this will result in a slow-down in the rate of growth in the market.”

“The surrounding regional towns however do not seem to have been as effected by the new LVR restrictions and there is still a lack of listings, strong demand and competition which is leading to value increases in smaller more affordable towns like Huntly and Ngaruawahia.”

“The Cambridge market is still strong with demand and a shortage of listings leading to value increases. The Waipa District overall has seen strong annual growth of 26.7% since September last year.”


Tauranga
Despite a slowing of activity and demand in the Tauranga market over the past month, home values in Tauranga City are still showing strong value increases over the past year, up 28.1% in the year since September 2015. Values have also risen 7.4% over the past three months. The average value in the city is now $644,297. Western Bay of Plenty home values have risen 29.3% year on year and a huge 9.2% over the past three months. The average value in the district is now $574,993.

Despite a slowing of activity and demand in the Tauranga market over the past month, home values in Tauranga City are still showing strong value increases over the past year, up 28.1% in the year since September 2015. Values have also risen 7.4% over the past three months. The average value in the city is now $644,297. Western Bay of Plenty home values have risen 29.3% year on year and a huge 9.2% over the past three months. The average value in the district is now $574,993.

QV homevalue Tauranga Registered Valuer David Hume said, “Investor activity in the Tauranga housing market has slowed somewhat, following the introduction of new LVR restrictions requiring investors to have a 40% deposit up from 20% previously.”

“Investors are still adapting to the new rules and the strong demand from buyers has stopped as suddenly as a “tap being turned off” according to some industry professionals. It remains to be seen how these new rules will affect the market in the long term.”

“Agents report buyer inquiries are down by 30% and listings are up by around 20% due to the arrival of spring so this is leading to a reduction in competition in the market.”

“There remains a lot of inquiry from first home buyers who previously were missing out to investors in a market which was predominately being driven by Auckland investors.”

“Surrounding regional centres such as Te Puke, Rotorua, Kawerau and Matamata are still seeing strong buyer demand.”

“This may be due to the lower entry point meaning the new deposit does not impact investors as much in the more affordable regional towns, as it’s easier to find 40% of $200,000 in a market like Rotorua than 40% of $400,000 which is entry level in Tauranga.”

“These markets appear to be less impacted by the new 40% deposit requirement for investors and with interest rates still low they can still get yields of up to 8.0%.”


Wellington
The QV House Price Index for the wider Wellington region shows home values rose 21.2% year on year and 7.1% over the past three months and values are now 21.4% higher than in the previous peak of 2007. The average value across the wider region there is now $553,023.

Home values in Wellington City suburbs rose 21.2% year on year and 5.9% over the past three months. The average value there is now $661,927. Lower Hutt rose 21.8% year on year and 9.6% over the past three months while Upper Hutt values were up 19.2% year on year and 9.6% over the past three months; Porirua also rose 19.0% year on year and 7.0% over the past three months and the Kapiti Coast was up 16.5% year on year and 6.3% over the past three months.

QV homevalue General Manager, David Nagel said, “We are continuing to see strong value growth across all parts of the Wellington region driven by high demand and a shortage of supply of homes listed for sale on the market.”

“The strongest demand is at the low end of the market and it appears first home buyers are now missing out to investors as they compete for entry level properties. The latest CoreLogic Buyer Classification data confirms a sharp drop in sales to movers and first home buyers and an increase in sales to investors in the Wellington market.”

“Investor housing stock has become really scarce and we are seeing big numbers vying for limited stock at auctions. We are also seeing high clearance rates at auctions and buyers are acting on a fear of missing out and stretching their budgets in order to secure properties.”

“Multi-unit investment type properties are very popular and are being snapped up quickly and values for these types of properties have risen by as much as 50% over the past 18 months to three years.”

“Values in areas further out from the city centre are now seeing strong value growth in areas such as Upper Hutt and the Kapiti Coast as buyers need to look further out to find affordable homes or investment properties.”

“QV homevalue is seeing an increasing number of market valuation requests from people wanting to restructure their loans and this could from those sourcing cash to invest in housing market.”

“Auctions are becoming increasingly popular for both vendors and buyers as it’s difficult to put a price on properties in the quickly rising market.”

“Auctions are attracting good numbers of attendees and often multiple bidders who are having to stretch their budgets in order to secure properties and sales prices above expectation are regularly being achieved.”


Christchurch
Home values in Christchurch City increased 4.4% year on year and 0.9% over the past three months and they are now 30.7% higher than the previous peak of 2007. The average value in the city is $495,723. Values in the Waimakariri District have risen 2.8% year on year and the average value there is now $427,804; while values in the Selwyn District are up 3.7% year on year and the average value there is now $535,873.

“QV homevalue Christchurch, Registered Valuer Damian Kennedy said, “The Christchurch market remains stable in terms of value increases and listings levels remain low and as yet we have not seen any major Spring boost in new listings.”

“The highest level of activity remains in the new build and new subdivision market which is proving popular with both first home buyers and investors.”

“First home buyers appear to be capitalising on the KiwiSaver HomeStart Grant which favours those purchasing new builds with double the maximum contribution to purchase a new build compared with an existing home.”

“Investors also appear to be active in the new build market which is exempt from the LVR rules especially now a 40% deposit is required for purchasing an existing investment property.”

QV is also reminding Christchurch property owners that if their properties have unrepaired damage they are asked to complete an online survey so this can be taken into account in the Christchurch City Rating Revaluation being carried out this year. The survey is can be downloaded or completed online by clicking the link onwww.ratingvalues.co.nz


Dunedin
The Dunedin city home values have risen 12.1% year on year and 3.5% over the past three months. The average value in the city is now $339,201.

QV homevalue Dunedin Registered Valuer, Duncan Jack said, “The market remains buoyant within Dunedin with no signs yet of any slowing due to the latest LVR restrictions.”

“Home value levels continue to move in an upward direction in the Dunedin housing market.”

“Demand is strong within most residential price brackets however it remains particularly strong for properties in the low to mid-level value ranges under $400,000.”

“There is also demand for properties in the upper level range above $400,000 however purchasers in this price bracket are definitely more price sensitive and selective.”

“The number of properties listed for sale on the market still remains relatively low and this is creating competition amongst already eager buyers.”

“As to be expected within this type of market agents are reporting good numbers at open homes and quick sales.”


Hawkes Bay
Napier home values continued to see strong growth rising 18.1% year on year and 5.6% over the past three months. The average value in the city is now $393,672. Hastings values are also rapidly rising up 17.8% year on year and 6.3% over the past three months. The average value there is now $367,227.

QV homevalue Hawkes Bay, Registered Valuer Bevan Pickett said, “The Hawkes Bay housing market is continuing to perform well, perhaps with the edge taken off slightly with less out of town buyers and local investors in the market following the introduction of the new LVR rules for investors.”


“However, so far the new measures do not appear to be affecting the rate of value growth and strong sale prices are still being achieved, particularly in the lower end of the market with record sale levels still being achieved.”

“Investors can still achieve a good return from rental investments in the market here and it is also much easier for investors to find a 40% deposit on an entry level property in Napier or Hastings than it is for an entry level rental property in Auckland, Hamilton or Tauranga.”

“We are also starting to see a number of long term investors exiting the market or selling off large proportions of their portfolios while it is easy to do so.”

“There is still a lack of good listings available to for purchasers which is a major factor in the market remaining strong.”

“The lifestyle market is also performing well and is now showing definite growth after a long period of values being quite flat.”


Nelson
Nelson home values have increased by 14.1% year on year and 3.5% over the past three months. The average value in the city is now $476,817. Values in the city are now 24.5% above the previous peak of 2007. The Tasman District also increased by 11.4% over the past year and 4.2% over the past three months and the average value in the district is now $475,427.

QV homevalue Nelson Registered Valuer Craig Russell said, “The market is extremely competitive in the lower to median price bracket across the Nelson region.”
“We are also seeing increased activity from speculators in recent months particularly in the new build market.”
“Richmond and Stoke section prices have increased considerably in recent months making it more difficult to construct a new home within previously normal budgets.”
“Motueka has seen strong value level movements with first home buyers and investors considering this a desirable place to live and invest.”
“Higher value lifestyle properties between Richmond and Motueka have been selling well and there has been an increase in buyer interest for modern homes with coastal sea views.”



Other Provincial centres
In the North Island, strong growth in the Tauranga market appears to be spreading further south down the east coast to centres such as Opotiki. Opotiki values have risen 24.8% over the past year and 9.2% over the past three months after a long period of little value growth, and Whakatane which is up 22.0% year on year and 4.5% over the past three months.

In the South Island, the Central Otago market continues to go from strength to strength spurred on by growth in the Queenstown Lakes District. Values in the Central Otago District have risen 20.6% year on year and in the MacKenzie District is up 22.3% year on year, while the Marlborough District also seems to be benefitting from the strong market in Nelson and Tasman, with values there up 13.7% year on year and 5.8% over the past three months.


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