NIWA Outlook: September - November 2017
NIWA Outlook: September – November 2017
Overview
Regional predictions for the next three months
Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Bay of
Plenty
Central North
Island, Taranaki, Whanganui, Manawatu, Wellington
Gisborne, Hawke’s Bay,
Wairarapa
Tasman, Nelson,
Marlborough, Buller
West
Coast, Alps and foothills, inland Otago and
Southland
Coastal
Canterbury, east Otago
Background
Contacts
Notes to reporters and editors
ENSO (El Niño – Southern Oscillation) neutral
conditions were still present in the tropical Pacific during
August 2017. However, like July, several oceanic and
atmospheric patterns, such as the Southern Oscillation Index
(SOI) and decreasing sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the
tropical Pacific, leaned toward La Niña. The latest weekly
sea-surface and ocean subsurface temperatures in the
equatorial Pacific Ocean are slightly below normal
(i.e. on the La Niña side of neutral). The Southern
Oscillation Index (SOI) is currently positive (+0.4, i.e.
on the La Niña side of neutral) and large-scale
circulation anomalies along the equator are consistent with
patterns usually associated with a La Niña state. On the
other hand, La Niña-like rainfall and convection anomalies
in the west Pacific were not as strong in August as they
were in July.
International guidance favours a persistence of ENSO neutral conditions over the next three-month period (65% chance for September – November 2017). While ENSO-neutral conditions remain the most likely outcome through the end of 2017, recent observations indicate that the ocean and atmosphere may continue to periodically exhibit La Niña-like signatures.
For September – November 2017, the atmospheric circulation around New Zealand is forecast to be characterised by lower pressure than normal west of New Zealand and higher pressure than normal to the south and east of the country. This is expected to lead to northerly-quarter (ranging from northwest to northeast) flow anomalies over the next three months. Periodic easterly flow anomalies are also possible, consistent with a La Niña-like signal in the atmosphere. This type of atmospheric setup may lend itself to subtropical moisture connections associated with heavy rainfalls for New Zealand.
Outlook Summary
September – November 2017 temperatures are forecast to be above average for all regions of New Zealand (55% to 65% chance for above average temperatures). Nevertheless, frosts and cool snaps are still possible during spring. Coastal water temperatures around New Zealand are forecast to remain above average over the next three-month period.
September – November 2017 rainfall totals are about equally likely to be normal (35-40% chance) or above normal (35-40% chance) for the North Island and the north of the South Island and most likely to be near normal (45% chance) for all remaining regions of New Zealand.
September – November 2017 soil moisture levels and river flows are about equally likely to be near normal (35-40%) or above normal (35-40% chance) for the North Island and the north of the South Island. Soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely to be near normal (45% chance) in the east and west of the South Island.
Regional predictions for the September – November 2017 season
Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty
The table below shows the probabilities (or percent chances) for each of three categories: above average, near average, and below average. In the absence of any forecast guidance there would be an equal likelihood (33% chance) of the outcome being in any one of the three categories. Forecast information from local and global guidance models is used to indicate the deviation from equal chance expected for the coming three-month period, with the following outcomes the most likely (but not certain) for this region:
• Temperatures are very
likely to be above average (60% chance).
• Rainfall
totals are about equally likely to be in the above normal
range (40% chance) or near normal range (35%
chance).
• Soil moisture levels and river flows are
about equally likely to be above normal (40% chance) or near
normal (35% chance).
The full probability breakdown is:
Temperature Rainfall Soil moisture River
flows
Above average 60 40 40 40
Near
average 30 35 35 35
Below
average 10 25 25 25
Central North Island,
Taranaki, Whanganui, Manawatu,
Wellington
Probabilities are assigned in three
categories: above average, near average, and below average.
• Temperatures are very likely to be above average
(60% chance).
• Rainfall totals are about equally
likely to be near normal (40% chance) or above normal (35%
chance).
• Soil moisture levels and river flows are
about equally likely to be near normal (35-40% chance) or
above normal (40% chance).
The full probability breakdown is:
Temperature Rainfall Soil moisture River
flows
Above average 60 35 40 40
Near
average 30 40 40 35
Below
average 10 25 20 25
Gisborne, Hawke’s Bay,
Wairarapa
Probabilities are assigned in three
categories: above average, near average, and below
average.
• Temperatures are most likely to be
above average (55% chance).
• Rainfall totals are about
equally likely to be above normal (40% chance) or near
normal (35% chance).
• Soil moisture levels and river
flows are about equally likely to be in the near normal (40%
chance) or above normal (35% chance) range.
The full
probability breakdown is:
Temperature Rainfall Soil
moisture River flows
Above average 55 40 35 35
Near
average 35 35 40 40
Below
average 10 25 25 25
Tasman, Nelson, Marlborough,
Buller
Probabilities are assigned in three
categories: above average, near average, and below
average.
• Temperatures are very likely to be
above average (60% chance).
• Rainfall totals are about
equally likely to be above normal (40% chance) or near
normal (35% chance).
• Soil moisture levels and river
flows are about equally likely to be in the near normal (40%
chance) or above normal (35% chance) range.
The full probability breakdown is:
Temperature Rainfall Soil
moisture River flows
Above average 60 40 35 35
Near
average 30 35 40 40
Below
average 10 25 25 25
West Coast, Alps and
foothills, inland Otago, Southland
Probabilities
are assigned in three categories: above average, near
average, and below average.
• Temperatures are
very likely to be above average (65%
chance).
• Rainfall totals are most likely to be in the
near normal range (45% chance).
• Soil moisture levels
and river flows are most likely to be in the near normal
range (45% chance).
The full probability breakdown is:
Temperature Rainfall Soil moisture River
flows
Above average 65 30 30 30
Near
average 25 45 45 45
Below
average 10 25 25 25
Coastal Canterbury, east
Otago
Probabilities are assigned in three
categories: above average, near average, and below
average.
• Temperatures are very likely to be
above average (60% chance).
• Rainfall totals are most
likely to be in the near normal range (45%
chance).
• Soil moisture levels and river flows are
most likely to be in the near normal range (45%
chance).
The full probability breakdown is:
Temperature Rainfall Soil moisture River
flows
Above average 60 25 30 25
Near
average 30 45 45 45
Below
average 10 30 25 30
Background
ENSO (El Niño –
Southern Oscillation) neutral conditions persisted across
the tropical Pacific during August 2017, but several oceanic
and atmospheric indicators leaned toward La Niña. The SOI
was, on average, positive during August (+0.4, i.e.
on the La Niña side of neutral) and enhanced equatorial
trade winds were reflective of a La Niña-like atmosphere.
Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean
continued to trend cooler during August 2017 in both the
central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The latest monthly
SST anomaly, ending 27th August 2017, in the NINO3.4 region
(in the central Pacific) is currently 0.02°C (was +0.43oC
last month). Slightly cooler than average waters are also
present in the far eastern equatorial Pacific.
Subsurface ocean temperatures have also cooled compared to last month, with the latest weekly data showing weak negative anomalies extending from the surface to about 150 meters depth in both the central and eastern Pacific. This is another oceanic indicator leaning in the La Niña direction.
The
preliminary [value estimated on the 30th of August] Southern
Oscillation Index (SOI) for the month of August 2017 is
positive at +0.4, i.e. on the La Niña side of
neutral. The SOI has now been positive for the past 2
months.
Zonal wind anomalies along the equator were
predominantly negative in the central and western equatorial
Pacific during August, indicating enhanced trade winds: a
pattern which is consistent with a positive SOI. However,
rainfall and convection anomalies in the tropical Pacific
were not as La Niña-like as they were in July. This was due
to decreased convection over parts of the western Pacific
and Maritime Continent associated with the Madden Julian
Oscillation.
Nevertheless, the ENSO Precipitation Index
(ESPI) is currently negative with a value near -1.2. The
ESPI was near -1.7 during July. The negative values over the
past two months are indicative of a La Niña-like state.
In summary, while the ocean – atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific Ocean overall remains consistent with an ENSO-neutral state, La Niña-like signals became more prominent in the atmosphere during July and this trend continued during August 2017.
International guidance favours a persistence of ENSO neutral conditions over the next three-month period (65% chance for September – November 2017). The likelihood for La Niña peaks at 25% in the November 2017 – January 2018 period. While ENSO-neutral conditions remain the most likely outcome through the end of 2017, recent observations indicate that the ocean and atmosphere may continue to periodically exhibit La Niña-like signatures.
Coastal waters remain generally warmer than average all around the country and positive anomalies increased during the final week of August, especially near the eastern and northern North Island. The anomaly in the “NZ box” (160°E-170°W, 30-45°S) is currently nearing +0.6oC. Ocean waters are still much warmer than average across the Tasman Sea, particularly in the south and west.
The dynamical models’ forecasts indicate that warmer than average SSTs around New Zealand are likely to persist over the September – November 2017 period.
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ENDS