A Christmas Stocking of Weather

Christmas day is a “mixed bag”, to use a cliché in the season of clichés. The ridge of high pressure that has been sitting over the country the past couple of days has produced predominantly dry yet cloudy weather. However, a frontal system currently approaching the country from across the Tasman Sea squeezes out the high and will bring some wet weather to places.

The front is forecast to bring wet weather to Fiordland and Westland, spreading further north to Buller in the evening. Eastern areas in the South Island will also experience wet weather, although more northern regions such as Canterbury will have a dry start and a hot Christmas day before rain arrives later in the day. MetService meteorologist Tui McInnes, explained that “This is a fairly typical frontal situation, where the Southern Alps act to trap moisture and clag on the West Coast. While it’s unfortunate that the timing is for Christmas Day, there will be many places thankful to finally see some rain”. McInnes added “the sheltering from the Southern Alps does keep eastern areas drier, but as the front progresses, regions like Otago and Dunedin will experience a period of wet weather.”

Further north, the wet weather is more far and few between, but cloud could be reluctant to clear for some. Most places will be mainly fine, but a weak trough feature does bring some isolated showers, particularly for inland and western places. “The trough has been sitting out to the west of the North Island and is getting pushed back inland during Christmas Day”, McInnes commented. “This does mean some showery conditions for places. However, these will be more isolated in nature and will mainly affect just central and western areas, keeping other places drier.”

Another ridge moves over the country for the final few days of 2017, to bring us a few days of dry weather. McInnes did caution that “cooler temperatures following the front will bring a contrasting boxing day for southern and eastern areas”. Déjà vu strikes and the forecast situation for New Zealand ringing in the New Year parallels that for Christmas day. “For New Year’s Eve, northwesterly winds developing ahead of a front as a high pressure moves away from the country,” said McInnes. “This does mean that 2018 could start of wet for some, but we will have to wait a few more days to find out exactly who will get the rain as the clock strikes midnight”.

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