Winter Climate Outlook
Outlook Summary
• A weak, central Pacific El Niño
continued during May, as patterns of enhanced rainfall
persisted in the vicinity of the International Dateline.
Although El Niño is forecast to continue during the
upcoming three-month period, it may weaken later in
2019.
• Air pressure is expected to be higher than
normal to the west and north of New Zealand and lower than
normal to the south, resulting in more westerly quarter
winds than normal.
• Winter temperatures are forecast
to be above average in the east of the South Island and to
be above average or near average in all remaining regions.
• Early June will feature unsettled weather and colder
than average temperatures for most of New Zealand, however,
warmer than average coastal and Tasman Sea surface
temperatures along with a lack of southerlies may reduce the
risk for cold snaps.
• July could turn out to be a more
settled month than June with an increased chance for high
pressure systems to affect New Zealand.
• Rainfall is
about equally likely to be below normal or near normal in
the north and east of the North Island and in the north of
the South Island, most likely to be near normal in the east
of the South Island and west of the North Island, and about
equally likely to be above normal or near normal in the west
of the South Island.
• Influenced by El Niño, enhanced
westerly wind flows may promote heavy rainfall events for
the west of the South Island, especially since regional sea
surface temperatures (SSTs) remain above average.
See the full report here.