Scoop has an Ethical Paywall
Work smarter with a Pro licence Learn More

Local Govt | National News Video | Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Search

 

Seasonal Climate Outlook May - June

Outlook Summary

  • Rainfall is about equally likely to be below normal or near normal in all regions of Aotearoa New Zealand except the north of the North Island, where near normal rainfall is most likely. It’s possible that long dry spells continue over the next three months.
  • While rainfall events will occur over the next three months, their frequency may be reduced compared to normal. Groundwater and dam level recharge and increases in river flow and soil moisture will likely be less pronounced than normal.
  • Temperatures are very unlikely to be colder than average for the three months as a whole. Above average or near average temperatures are favoured for all regions except the east of the South Island, where above average temperatures are most likely.
  • While frosts and cold spells will occur occasionally, they are generally expected to be brief.
  • Air pressure is predicted to be higher than normal to the east of the country. This is expected to be associated with more westerly and northeasterly quarter winds than normal.
  • La Niña transitioned to ENSO neutral conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean during April as the sub-surface ocean continued to warm. For more information, see the Background.
  • Coastal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) ranged from 0.6 to 1.3C above average during April. Many areas experienced marine heatwave conditions, as described in the Background.
  • Soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely to be near normal in the north and west of the North Island, below normal in the east of the South Island, and about equally likely to be near normal or below normal in all other regions.

Regional predictions for May – July 2021

Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty

Advertisement - scroll to continue reading

Are you getting our free newsletter?

Subscribe to Scoop’s 'The Catch Up' our free weekly newsletter sent to your inbox every Monday with stories from across our network.

The table below shows the probabilities (or percent chances) for each of three categories: above average, near average, and below average. In the absence of any forecast guidance there would be an equal likelihood (33% chance) of the outcome being in any one of the three categories. Forecast information from local and global guidance models is used to indicate the deviation from equal chance expected for the coming three-month period, with the following outcomes the most likely (but not certain) for this region:

  • Temperatures are about equally likely to be above average (50% chance) or near average (45% chance).
  • Rainfall totals are about most likely to be near normal (45% chance).
  • Soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely to be near normal (45% chance).

The full probability breakdown is:

Central North Island, Taranaki, Whanganui, Manawatu, Wellington

Probabilities are assigned in three categories: above average, near average, and below average.

  • Temperatures are about equally likely to be above average (50% chance) or near average (45% chance).
  • Rainfall totals are about equally likely to be below normal (40% chance) or near normal (35% chance).
  • Soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely to be near normal (45-50% chance).

The full probability breakdown is:

Gisborne, Hawke’s Bay, Wairarapa

Probabilities are assigned in three categories: above average, near average, and below average.

  • Temperatures are about equally likely to be above average (50% chance) or near average (45% chance).
  • Rainfall totals are about equally likely to be near normal (40% chance) or below normal (35% chance).
  • Soil moisture levels and river flows are equally likely to be near normal (40% chance) or below normal (40% chance).
  • River flows will likely be slow to recover since there is a lag between soil moisture replenishment and an increase in river flows.
  • Meteorological drought re-emerged during April in northern Hawke’s Bay and coastal Gisborne according to NIWA’s New Zealand Drought Index.

The full probability breakdown is:

Tasman, Nelson, Marlborough, Buller

Probabilities are assigned in three categories: above average, near average, and below average.

  • Temperatures are equally likely to be above average (45% chance) or near average (45% chance).
  • Rainfall totals are about equally likely to be below normal (45% chance) or near normal (40% chance).
  • Soil moisture levels and river flows are about equally likely to be near normal (40-45% chance) or below normal (40% chance).

The full probability breakdown is:

West Coast, Alps and foothills, inland Otago, Southland

Probabilities are assigned in three categories: above average, near average, and below average.

  • Temperatures are equally likely to be above average (45% chance) or near average (45% chance).
  • Rainfall totals are about equally likely to be near normal (45% chance) or below normal (40% chance).
  • Rainfall deficiencies will continue to be possible in the hydro lake areas.
  • Soil moisture levels and river flows are equally likely to be below normal (40% chance) or near normal (40% chance).

The full probability breakdown is:

Coastal Canterbury, east Otago

Probabilities are assigned in three categories: above average, near average, and below average.

  • Temperatures are most likely to be above average (50% chance).
  • Rainfall totals are about equally likely to be below normal (45% chance) or near normal (40% chance).
  • Soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely to be below normal (50-55% chance).
  • With the end of growing season, there will be less soil water uptake by plants, meaning that soil moisture can recover during rainfall events.
  • River flows will likely be slow to recover since there is a lag between soil moisture replenishment and an increase in river flows.

The full probability breakdown is:

Graphical representation of the regional probabilities

© Scoop Media

Advertisement - scroll to continue reading
 
 
 
Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Regional Headlines


Gordon Campbell: On The US Opposition To Mortgage Interest Deductibility For Landlords


Should landlords be able to deduct the interest on the loans they take out to bankroll their property speculation? The US Senate Budget Committee and Bloomberg News don't think this is a good idea, for reasons set out below. Regardless, our coalition government has been burning through a ton of political capital by giving landlords a huge $2.9 billion tax break via interest deductibility, while still preaching the need for austerity to the disabled, and to everyone else...
More


 
 

Government: Concerns Conveyed To China Over Cyber Activity
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has confirmed New Zealand’s concerns about cyber activity have been conveyed directly to the Chinese Government. “The Prime Minister and Minister Collins have expressed concerns today about malicious cyber activity... More

ALSO:


Government: GDP Decline Reinforces Government’s Fiscal Plan

Declining GDP for the December quarter reinforces the importance of restoring fiscal discipline to public spending and driving more economic growth, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says... More

ALSO:


Government: Humanitarian Support For Gaza & West Bank

Winston Peters has announced NZ is providing a further $5M to respond to the extreme humanitarian need in Gaza and the West Bank. “The impact of the Israel-Hamas conflict on civilians is absolutely appalling," he said... More


Government: New High Court Judge Appointed

Judith Collins has announced the appointment of Wellington Barrister Jason Scott McHerron as a High Court Judge. Justice McHerron graduated from the University of Otago with a BA in English Literature in 1994 and an LLB in 1996... More

 
 
 
 
 
 

LATEST HEADLINES

  • PARLIAMENT
  • POLITICS
  • REGIONAL
 
 

InfoPages News Channels


 
 
 
 

Join Our Free Newsletter

Subscribe to Scoop’s 'The Catch Up' our free weekly newsletter sent to your inbox every Monday with stories from across our network.