Video | Agriculture | Confidence | Economy | Energy | Employment | Finance | Media | Property | RBNZ | Science | SOEs | Tax | Technology | Telecoms | Tourism | Transport | Search


Retail Sales Preview - Q1 2000

Data Flash (New Zealand) - Preview
Retail Sales Preview - Q1 2000

Key points

Contrary to previous advice from Statistics NZ, it now appears that Statistics NZ plan to make a leap year adjustment to the quarterly retail sales figures due for publication next Tuesday.

As a result, the reported seasonally adjusted movement will be much weaker than previously expected.

Importantly, the statistical treatment of the leap year effect has no impact on our view of underlying trends in the economy.

Provisional nominal data for the month of March was published on 20 April. Prior to adjustment for leap year effects, the data suggested that Statistics NZ would report growth in nominal sales of 1.7% s.a. in Q1.

Given our estimate of a 1% increase in the retail trade deflator, we concluded that Statistics NZ would report a 0.7% rise in real retail sales in Q1.

There is uncertainty about the size of the adjustment that will be made with Statistics NZ staff unwilling to discuss the methodology in detail in advance of the release.

An estimate of the probable adjustment can be derived by looking at the adjustment made to the published figures for retail sales in February.

We estimate that growth of around 3.8% would have been recorded in February had no leap year adjustment been made. Statistics NZ reported growth of 0.8%. Applying this result to the quarter as a whole suggests that seasonally adjusted sales could print up to 1% weaker than previously thought.

Given uncertainty about the size of the adjustment, we have lowered our forecasts of Q1 nominal and real retail sales growth by 0.7 percentage points.

As a result, we now estimate that Statistics NZ will publish an estimate of zero growth in real sales during Q1, although there is some risk of a slightly weaker outturn.

At this stage, Statistics NZ have made no decision about the treatment of leap year effects in the Q1 GDP data on 26 June. Therefore, at this stage our estimate of 0.6% growth qoq stands.

Darren Gibbs, Senior Economist

This, along with an extensive range of other publications, is available on our web site

In order to read our research you will require the Adobe Acrobat Reader which can be obtained from their website for free.

For answers to your EMU questions, check Deutsche Bank's EMU web site or email our helpline

© Scoop Media

Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines


Collecting Scalpers: Commerce Commission To Sue Viagogo

The Commission will claim that Viagogo made false or misleading representations: • that it was an “official” seller, when it was not • that tickets were limited or about to sell out • that consumers were “guaranteed” to receive valid tickets for their event • about the price of tickets... More>>


Price Of Cheese: Fonterra CEO Goes Early After Milk Price Trimmed

Aug. 15 (BusinessDesk) - Fonterra Cooperative Group chief executive Theo Spierings is leaving the role early after the world's biggest dairy exporter lowered its farmgate payout and trimmed its dividend to retain cash. More>>


9.2 Percent: Gender Pay Gap Second-Smallest On Record

This is the second-smallest gap since the series began 20 years ago. In comparison, the gender pay gap was 9.1 percent in 2012 (the lowest on record) and 9.4 percent last year. More>>


Forest & Bird: Report Find Council Failures On Effluent

The report exposes significant inconsistencies and gaps in how regional councils are enforcing the rules around dairy effluent management. More>>


Mana In Mahi: Helping Young New Zealanders Into Work

Thousands of young people will be given the chance to gain valuable qualifications and meaningful work under the Mana in Mahi – Strength in Work scheme launched by Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern today. More>>


Reserve Bank: Official Cash Rate Unchanged At 1.75 Percent

The Official Cash Rate (OCR) remains at 1.75 percent. We expect to keep the OCR at this level through 2019 and into 2020, longer than we projected in our May Statement. The direction of our next OCR move could be up or down. ... More>>