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ANZ Commodity Prices - April 2000

Data Flash (New Zealand)
ANZ Commodity Prices - April 2000

ANZ Commodity Price Index data
:::::::::::::::::::: NZD Index::::::::::
World Price Index
::::::::::::::: mom %::::: ann. %::::: mom. %::::: ann. %
Oct-99:::::::::: +3.1:::::::::: +3.8:::::::::: +0.8::::::::::+1.0
Nov-99:::::::::: +3.9:::::::::: +9.5:::::::::: +3.8::::::::::+4.1
Dec-99:::::::::: +2.9::::::::::+14.9:::::::::: +2.3::::: +10.8
Jan-00:::::::::: +0.4::::::::::+15.3:::::::::: +1.4::::::::::+9.5
Feb-00:::::::::: +5.4::::::::::+22.7:::::::::: +2.1::::: +11.5
Mar-00:::::::::: +1.4::::::::::+23.6:::::::::: +1.4::::: +14.1
Apr-00:::::::::: -2.6::::::::::+21.4:::::::::: -1.2::::: +11.2
Source: DB Global Markets Research, ANZ Bank


Key facts

The foreign currency price of New Zealand's commodity exports fell by 1.2% in April. However, the originally recorded 0.7% decline for the previous month was significantly revised up to +1.4%.

The April weakness was caused by falling prices for lamb, aluminium, sawn timber and skins.

Relative to April 1999, commodity prices were up 11.2%.

In NZD terms, commodity prices fell by 2.5% in April, due to the weaker world prices and a temporary recovery in the NZD. April prices were up 21.4% on last year.

Comments

We consider the small setback for commodity prices in April to be a temporary development, with global trends suggesting that prices will continue to firm.

The ANZ commodity prices series is a reasonable indicator for the official Statistics NZ export price data (to be published on 8 June). The indicator points to a rise of around 3.0%, which compares to an estimate of zero included in yesterday's RBNZ forecasts. Together with the RBNZ's zero estimate for import prices in Q1 (we expect +2.6%), that confirms a significant upside risk to the RBNZ inflation forecasts from international price pressures.

Ulf Schoefisch. Chief Economist, New Zealand

This, along with an extensive range of other publications, is available on our web site http://research.gm.db.com

In order to read our research you will require the Adobe Acrobat Reader which can be obtained from their website http://www.adobe.com for free.

For answers to your EMU questions, check Deutsche Bank's EMU web site http://www.db.com/emu or email our helpline business.emu@db.com.


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