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ANZ Job Ads Survey May 2000

Data Flash (New Zealand) ANZ Job Ads Survey May 2000

Key Facts

Following a sharp fall in job ads in April, possibly related to the long Easter break, job ads rebounded strongly in May. In seasonally adjusted terms, the number of ads rose 9.0% to the highest level recorded since February.

The addition of the latest data has led to an upward revision to recent estimates of the trend series. The trend was flat in May - the first non-negative movement in the trend since November.

Strong growth in job ads occurred in Christchurch, the Waikato, Manawatu and Otago, consistent with better economic performance in those regions exposed to the buoyant agriculture and tourism sectors.

Comment

The rebound in job ads is consistent with firms being more confident about their own level of activity than about general business conditions, as suggested by recent business surveys. Despite anecdotal evidence of firms curtailing employment plans amid concerns about the Employment Relations Bill, the resilience of the job ads series suggests that a continuation of moderate employment growth is likely.

ANZ Job Ads - Growth Trend S.A. Unadjusted mom% Mom% 3 mth%* Month of: Dec-99 -0.3 +1.7 +31.6 Jan-00 -0.6 -0.9 +20.3 Feb-00 -0.4 -1.7 +17.0 Mar-00 -0.2 -0.3 +14.7 Apr-00 -0.2 -8.1 +13.6 May-00 0.0 9.0 +11.3 * Compares same period of previous year Source: DB Global Market,s Research, ANZ Bank

Darren Gibbs, Senior Economist, New Zealand, (64) 9 351 1376

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