Video | Agriculture | Confidence | Economy | Energy | Employment | Finance | Media | Property | RBNZ | Science | SOEs | Tax | Technology | Telecoms | Tourism | Transport | Search

 


Data Flash (NZ) NZ: Retail Trade - May 2000

Data Flash (New Zealand) NZ: Retail Trade - May 2000

Key points

Total retail sales rose 0.8% mom (s.a.) in May, 0.1 percentage points stronger than the provisional estimate released on 21 June. The level of seasonally adjusted sales was 6.6% higher than a year earlier.

Growth in the months of April and March was revised down slightly to 0.1% and 0.0% respectively from 0.3% and 0.1% previously.

A 5.2% increase in motor vehicle sales made the largest contribution to growth during the month, reflecting a bounce back from low sales in April.

Increased spending on petrol - driven by higher prices - also made a significant contribution.

Excluding motor vehicle sales and services, retail sales fell 0.2% in May.

Statistics New Zealand commented that trend measures are now confirming an easing of growth for a number of storetypes. Sales growth was strongest in the Waikato and Canterbury regions, consistent with other indicators such as the ANZ Job Ads series.

Commentary

Based on data for May and April, total nominal sales are likely to have risen by 1% qoq over Q2. We estimate that the majority of nominal growth can be explained by rising prices. Therefore, we expect little growth in volumes to have been recorded.


Continued strong growth in tourism has helped to underpin growth in retail sales. Private consumption, which excludes net tourist spending, fell 0.1% during Q1. Including tourist spending, consumption would have risen 0.3%. The trend towards weaker retail sales remains clear, reflecting the slump in consumer confidence and the downturn in the building sector. A provisional estimate of June sales will be published on 21 July.

A continuation of weak domestic data will put pressure on the RBNZ to leave the OCR on hold in August. However, assuming that confidence data bounces back somewhat over the coming month, we expect the RBNZ to raise rates 25bps on 16 August. The Bank will point to the deterioration in the inflation outlook and the likelihood of a resumption of strong economic growth by the end of this year, the latter driven primarily by a buoyant world economy and a very stimulatory exchange rate.

This, along with an extensive range of other publications, is available on our web site http://research.gm.db.com

In order to read our research you will require the Adobe Acrobat Reader which can be obtained from their website http://www.adobe.com for free.

For answers to your EMU questions, check Deutsche Bank's EMU web site http://www.db.com/emu or email our helpline business.emu@db.com.


© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines

 

Nurofen Promotion: Reckitt Benckiser To Plead Guilty To Misleading Ads

Reckitt Benckiser (New Zealand) intends to plead guilty to charges of misleading consumers over the way it promoted a range of Nurofen products, the Commerce Commission says. More>>

ALSO:

Half A Billion Accounts: Yahoo Confirms Huge Data Breach

The account information may have included names, email addresses, telephone numbers, dates of birth, hashed passwords (the vast majority with bcrypt) and, in some cases, encrypted or unencrypted security questions and answers. More>>

Rural Branches: Westpac To Close 19 Branches, ANZ Looks At 7

Westpac confirms it will close nineteen branches across the country; ANZ closes its Ngaruawahia branch and is consulting on plans to close six more branches; The bank workers union says many of its members are nervous about their futures and asking ... More>>

Interest Rates: RBNZ's Wheeler Keeps OCR At 2%

Reserve Bank governor Graeme Wheeler kept the official cash rate at 2 percent and said more easing will be needed to get inflation back within the target band. More>>

ALSO:

Half Full: Fonterra Raises Forecast Payout As Global Supply Shrinks

Fonterra Cooperative Group, the dairy processor which will announce annual earnings tomorrow, hiked its forecast payout to farmers by 50 cents per kilogram of milk solids as global supply continues to decline, helping prop up dairy prices. More>>

ALSO:

Results:

Meat Trade: Silver Fern Farms Gets Green Light For Shanghai Maling Deal

The government has given the green light for China's Shanghai Maling Aquarius to acquire half of Silver Fern Farms, New Zealand's biggest meat company, with ministers satisfied it will deliver "substantial and identifiable benefit". More>>

ALSO:

Get More From Scoop

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Business
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news