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Deutsche Bank - ANZ Job Ads

Key Points

In an expanded survey, the trend in `All NZ' jobs ads declined 0.1% mom in June, driven entirely by a 1.3% mom decline in Auckland. We estimate that the number of job ads fell by around 2% mom in seasonally adjusted terms. Despite the decline over the month, the level of job ads remained over 7% higher than a year earlier.

Growth is much weaker in those regions with relatively greater exposure to the flat domestic sector than in those regions with greater exposure to the booming external sector. The number of job ads in Auckland during June was just 1.9% higher than a year earlier. This stands in contrast to 30.1% growth in Christchurch, 26.2% growth in the Hawkes Bay, and 10.8% growth in the Waikato.

Comment Although the number of job ads has fallen, the magnitude of the decline, at least to date, is nowhere near that suggested by survey measures of employment intentions. This is consistent with our view that the level of overall activity in the economy will remain robust despite an unprecedented fall in business confidence.

ANZ Job Ads - Growth (All NZ)
::::::::::::::: Trend:::::S.A. Unadjusted
::::::::::::::: mom%:::::Mom%::::: 3 mth%*
Month of:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
Jan-00:::::::::: -0.3:::::-5.6::::: +19.6
Feb-00:::::::::: -0.1::::: 4.9::::: +17.2
Mar-00:::::::::: 0.0::::: 0.3::::: +15.7
Apr-00:::::::::: 0.0::::: -6.4::::: +14.3
May-00:::::::::: 0.0::::: 6.0::::: +11.5
June-00:::::::::: -0.1:::::-1.9::::: +8.0
* Compares same period of previous year
Source: DB Global Market,s Research, ANZ Bank

Darren Gibbs, Senior Economist, New Zealand,

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