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Retail Sales - June 2000 (Provisional)

Data Flash (New Zealand)

Key points

Total retail sales are estimated to have risen by 0.2% mom/6.0% you in June.

Excluding motor vehicles sales and servicing store-types, retail sales rose by 0.6% mom.

Commentary

The provisional monthly outturn has so far proven to be a reasonably reliable estimate of the final retail sales published some three weeks later. Taking the June outturn at face value, we estimate that total nominal retail sales grew by 1.0% in Q2. Adjusting the Q2 CPI outturn to reflect the composition of retail sales, we estimate that the retail trade deflator increased by about 0.6% in Q1.? This implies that real retail sales increased by approximately 0.4% during the quarter. Our forecast is for private consumption to have been unchanged in Q2 following a 0.1% fall in Q1. The relatively strong performance of retail sales compared to private consumption reflects, in part, increased spending by tourists, classified as exports for the purposes of the national accounts. Our preliminary forecast for overall GDP growth in Q2 remains 0.2% qoq.

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