Video | Agriculture | Confidence | Economy | Energy | Employment | Finance | Media | Property | RBNZ | Science | SOEs | Tax | Technology | Telecoms | Tourism | Transport | Search


Preview June Quarter Growth estimated at -0.8%

Data Flash (New Zealand) –

Preview June Quarter Growth estimated at -0.8%

Key Points
Release date: Friday, 29 September, 10.45am (NZT)
Deutsche Bank
forecasts: -0.8% qoq; +4.9% yoy
RBNZ forecast: -0.2% qoq; +5.5% yoy
Market expectations (average so far): -0.3% qoq. Range: -1.0%/+0.2% qoq

qFollowing latest overseas trade and manufacturing sector data, we have revised our estimate of Q2 Production GDP growth to -0.8% qoq. The corresponding forecast for Expenditure GDP is -0.9% qoq.

On a production basis, we expect a negative contribution from the primary sector following a record performance over the year to March. Generally slow domestic demand and weak confidence levels have been behind weakness in the manufacturing and construction sectors, while telecommunications activity has again been the key driver of the service sector.

On an expenditure basis, weak consumer confidence and pressure on household incomes has led to a slowdown in consumption, while a negative investment contribution has largely been driven by a 20% fall in residential investment. Reflecting the comparatively slow development of export sector momentum, the growth contribution from net exports is likely to be negative.

The data will be released only days before the RBNZ's 4 October OCR review. Based on the expected weak result and continued mixed indicators for Q3, the probability of a cash rate move appears close to zero.

Ulf Schoefisch, Chief Economist, New Zealand

This, along with an extensive range of other publications, is available on our web site

In order to read our research you will require the Adobe Acrobat Reader which can be obtained from their website for free.

For answers to your EMU questions, check Deutsche Bank's EMU web site or email our helpline

© Scoop Media

Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines


Postnatal Depression: 'The Thief That Steals Motherhood' - Alison McCulloch

Post-natal depression is a sly and cruel illness, described by one expert as ‘the thief that steals motherhood’, it creeps up on its victims, hiding behind the stress and exhaustion of being a new parent, catching many women unaware and unprepared. More>>


DIY: Kiwi Ingenuity And Masking Tape Saves Chick

Kiwi ingenuity and masking tape has saved a Kiwi chick after its egg was badly damaged endangering the chick's life. The egg was delivered to Kiwi Encounter at Rainbow Springs in Rotorua 14 days ago by a DOC worker with a large hole in its shell and against all odds has just successfully hatched. More>>


Trade: Key To Lead Mission To India; ASEAN FTA Review Announced

Prime Minister John Key will lead a trade delegation to India next week, saying the pursuit of a free trade agreement with the protectionist giant is "the primary reason we're going" but playing down the likelihood of early progress. More>>



MYOB: Digital Signatures Go Live

From today, Inland Revenue will begin accepting “digital signatures”, saving businesses and their accountants a huge amount of administration time and further reducing the need for pen and paper in the workplace. More>>

Oil Searches: Norway's Statoil Quits Reinga Basin

Statoil, the Norwegian state-owned oil company, has given up oil and gas exploration in Northland's Reinga Basin, saying the probably of a find was 'too low'. More>>


Modern Living: Auckland Development Blowouts Reminiscent Of Run Up To GFC

The collapse of property developments in Auckland is "almost groundhog day" to the run-up of the global financial crisis in 2007/2008 as banks refuse to fund projects due to blowouts in construction and labour costs, says John Kensington, the author of KPMG's Financial Institutions Performance Survey. More>>


Health: New Zealand's First ‘No Sugary Drinks’ Logo Unveiled

New Zealand’s first “no sugary drinks logo” has been unveiled at an event in Wellington... It will empower communities around New Zealand to lift their health and wellbeing and send a clear message about the damage caused by too much sugar in our diets. More>>


Get More From Scoop

Search Scoop  
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news