Video | Agriculture | Confidence | Economy | Energy | Employment | Finance | Media | Property | RBNZ | Science | SOEs | Tax | Technology | Telecoms | Tourism | Transport | Search


Data Flash - Balance of Payments - Q2 2000

Data Flash - Balance of Payments - Q2 2000

Data Flash (New Zealand) Balance of Payments - Q2 2000

Key Points

The current account deficit for Q2 2000 was $1,392m, compared with a deficit of $1,181m in Q2 1999. The aggregate outcome was consistent with DB and median market expectations. At the component level, the trade balance was marginally better than we had expected but the services and investment income balances were marginally worse. The deficit for the year to Q2 2000 was $7.5bn - equivalent to 7.1% of GDP - compared with $4.2bn a year earlier. There were no further revisions to previously released data following the substantial revisions published earlier this week. The seasonally adjusted Q2 current account balance, at $1,589m, was the lowest recorded since Q2 1999. When annualised, the latest result equates to a deficit of 6.0% of GDP, reinforcing the conclusion that the annual current account deficit is likely to improve over coming quarters. On an annual basis, the current account deficit has deteriorated by around $3.3bn, reflecting: a $1.2bn decline in the trade surplus, in part reflecting the import of a naval frigate in Q4 1999 and sharp increases in the cost of oil; and a $2.6bn worsening in the international investment position, reflecting both a fall in credits and a sharp rise in debits. Partially offsetting these negatives, the balance on services has improved by around $0.5bn over the past year reflecting strong growth in tourist arrivals. Market Reaction: There was no market reaction to the current account data.


Today's release confirms our view that the deterioration in the current account deficit has halted. The annual deficit is likely to print broadly unchanged at around 7.0% of GDP in Q3, although we anticipate a further fall in the seasonally adjusted balance. The current account deficit should fall to around 6% of GDP in Q4 as the impact of the import of a $0.6bn naval frigate in Q4 1999 drops out of the calculation. Thereafter, over the course of 2001, we expect the current account deficit to fall towards 4% of GDP. This reflects our expectation of a significant improvement in the trade balance as a result of strong growth in net export volumes and an improvement in the terms of trade as oil prices recede from current highs.

Darren Gibbs, Senior Economist, New Zealand,

This, along with an extensive range of other publications, is available on our web site

In order to read our research you will require the Adobe Acrobat Reader which can be obtained from their website for free.

For answers to your EMU questions, check Deutsche Bank's EMU web site or email our helpline

© Scoop Media

Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines


Gordon Campbell: On The Tax Working Group’s Road Map

Trying to analyse the interim report on the Tax Working Group (TWG) is like trying to review an entire All Blacks game, but at the half- time mark… More>>


Cut Before Using: Australian Strawberries Withdrawn

Needles were found in a punnet of strawberries sourced from Western Australia, which was bought in a Countdown supermarket in Auckland. The Choice brand of strawberries was sold nationwide last week. More>>


"Broad-Based Growth": GDP Rises 1 Percent In June Quarter

Gross domestic product (GDP) rose 1.0 percent in the June 2018 quarter, up from 0.5 percent last quarter, Stats NZ said today. This is the largest quarterly rise in two years. More>>


Judicial Review: China Steel Tarrif Rethink Ordered

On 5 July 2017 the Minister determined not to impose duties on Chinese galvanised steel coil imports. NZ Steel applied for judicial review of the Minister’s decision. More>>