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Data Flash: ANZ Job Ads - September 2000

Data Flash (New Zealand)

ANZ Job Ads - September 2000

Key Points

The trend number of job ads rose 1.0% mom in September (trend estimates for earlier months have also been revised upwards). In seasonally adjusted terms, growth of 4.1% mom was recorded. Auckland is beginning to show some signs of life after 8 months of decline - trend job ads rose 0.4% mom, but remained down 5.4% yoy. Strong growth has continued in Christchurch (+1.8% mom/+35.1% yoy) and Dunedin (+3.5%mom /+23.2% yoy), reflecting their greater exposure to the well-performing external sector.

Internet job ads have increased 42% over past 5 months. No information is available about the extent of duplication with print ads (and across the internet sector), but we think this is likely to be very considerable.

Commentary

The continued resilience of job ads refutes the notion that New Zealand has entered a full-blown recession (the difference between the current experience and 1998 is stark). We believe the data supports our view that GDP growth will return to positive territory in Q3. Given significant upside risks to the inflation outlook, a continuation of these trends will likely see the RBNZ back in the picture in March 2001 (our central view) though a move on 6 December can't be ruled out, especially if the Q3 CPI shows higher and more widespread inflation than the RBNZ expects.

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