Video | Agriculture | Confidence | Economy | Energy | Employment | Finance | Media | Property | RBNZ | Science | SOEs | Tax | Technology | Telecoms | Tourism | Transport | Search

 

NZ Building Consents - October 2000

Data Flash (New Zealand) NZ Building Consents - October 2000

Key points

The number of new dwelling consents issued increased 2.0% mom in October following a 0.8% mom in September.

Non-residential building consents with a value of $217m were issued in October. The value of non-residential consents issued in the three months to October was 25.7% higher than a year earlier, largely as a result of a high value recorded in August 2000 (related to a single office project).

Reflecting the sharp fall in residential construction activity, the average value of total building consents issued in the three months to October was $548m, 6% lower than a year earlier.

Commentary Building consents data has been particularly volatile in recent months, making it difficult to discern a trend. However, the latest outcome appears consistent with our earlier conclusion that the bottom of the current housing cycle has been reached.

At this stage, however, we see little chance of a strong cyclical rebound in the housing market, notwithstanding evidence of an improvement in consumer sentiment (reflected in both the latest Colmar Brunton and NBR polls, and in the ASB's latest housing market report).

The outlook for housing activity will depend, in part, on net migration trends. The net migration outflow increased in October after falling sharply over the previous two months. As a result, the rate of population growth remains low relative to the average over the past two decades.

Given the current rate of household formation, we assess the current level of dwelling consent issuance - around 19000-20000 annualised - to be broadly sustainable on a medium-term basis. Thus, in the absence of a significant and sustained turnaround in migration flows, the housing market is likely to remain subdued.

As a result, significant wealth effects from house price inflation are unlikely to be a feature of the economic landscape over the foreseeable future. Indeed, given rising CPI inflation, further falls in real house prices seem likely to occur over the coming year, imposing a negative influence on consumer spending. Darren Gibbs, Senior Economist


This, along with an extensive range of other publications, is available on our web site http://research.gm.db.com

In order to read our research you will require the Adobe Acrobat Reader which can be obtained from their website http://www.adobe.com for free.


© Scoop Media

 
 
 
Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines

 

Media Mega Merger: StuffMe Hearing Argues Over Moveable Feast

New Zealand's two largest news publishers are appealing against the Commerce Commission's rejection of the proposal to merge their operations. More>>

Elsewhere:


Approval: Northern Corridor Decision Released

The approval gives the green light to construction of the last link of Auckland’s Western Ring Route, providing an alternative route from South Auckland to the North Shore. More>>

ALSO:


Crown Accounts: $4.1 Billion Surplus

The New Zealand Government has achieved its third fiscal surplus in a row with the Crown accounts for the year ended 30 June 2017 showing an OBEGAL surplus of $4.1 billion, $2.2 billion stronger than last year, Finance Minister Steven Joyce says. More>>

ALSO:

Mycoplasma Bovis: One New Property Tests Positive

The newly identified property... was already under a Restricted Place notice under the Biosecurity Act. More>>

Accounting Scandal: Suspension Of Fuji Xerox From All-Of-Government Contract

General Manager of New Zealand Government Procurement John Ivil says, “FXNZ has been formally suspended from the Print Technology and Associated Services (PTAS) contract and terminated from the Office Supplies contract.” More>>