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Tourism Forecasts Released

Sean Murray
Chairman, Tourism Research Council New Zealand

The Chairman of the Tourism Research Council New Zealand, Sean Murray, today announced the release of the Council’s first output, International Tourism Forecasts to New Zealand 2000 – 2006, which have been prepared by McDermott Fairgray Group.

“The forecasts have been prepared to highlight future trends in New Zealand tourism so the Government, regions, industry and the financial community are armed with authoritative and independent forecasts to enable them to plan for the development of the industry.”

“The growth trends in tourism provide many commercial opportunities that will generate real benefits for New Zealand – but these will only be realised if the decisions taken relating to the sector are both informed and appropriate.”

“The TRCNZ initiative is designed to address the fundamental lack of knowledge and robust appreciation of our business,” Mr Murray said. “This is why the Council has received very strong support from both the public and private sectors and why Tourism Holdings Limited allows me to commit my resources to the TRCNZ.”

“I would like to recognise the contribution of the Minister of Tourism, the Hon Mark Burton, in the vital role he played in establishing the TRCNZ and for his ongoing support of this initiative.”

The forecasting project highlights the ways in which the TRCNZ can add considerable value to the information base of the sector.

Firstly, the international arrival forecasts are only the first output of a larger three-year programme that will also generate forecasts of expenditure and nights, domestic travel, outbound travel and, finally regional-level tourism activity. In addition, the forecasting work undertaken will be updated on an annual basis so the forecasting process will be locked in as core tourism sector intelligence.

Secondly, the TRCNZ applies a rigorous process to work undertaken as part of its programme to ensure the quality of the outputs generated. For instance, for the forecasting project, the TRCNZ established a Forecasting Technical Committee to assess the formal peer review steps, to consider the overall forecasts and to make recommendation to the Council on whether it endorse the forecasts.

“I certainly believe that the forecasts represent a very credible output and they should be treated with confidence by users”.

In terms of the wider TRCNZ programme, we are:

 undertaking a similar processes to the management of the Tourism Satellite Account and Commercial Accommodation Monitor
 seeking to establish the essential relationships so that the Council can play an active role in other sector surveys and research
 working to greatly enhance the dissemination of intelligence to users through a “one-stop-shop” website to tourism research.

As Chairman of the TRCNZ, I am pleased that we now have the opportunity to make great progress in equipping decision-makers with the information tools they need to develop our industry in truly sustainable fashion.


Sean Murray
Tourism Research Council New Zealand
(09) 309 1776
021 912 772

Bruce Bassett
Office of Tourism and Sport
(04) 498 7448
025 249 6758

Highlights of the Forecasts

 In 2006, New Zealand is forecast to receive 2.53 million visitors (up from 1.72 million currently)
 This represents a 6.7% average annual growth rate over 2000 to 2006
 Over this period:
 Holiday arrivals are forecast to increase by 7.2% per year and grow from 820,000 to 1,331,000 arrivals (an increase of 512,000)
 Visiting Friends and Family arrivals are forecast to grow by 6.6%, Business arrival by 7.1%, and Other Arrivals by 4.1%
 Of our key markets, Australia is forecast to grow by 5.3% over 2000-2006, United States by 6.7%, United Kingdom by 7.5%, Asia (excluding Japan) by 10.4% and Europe by 6.6%

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