NZ Retail Sales - December 2000 (Advance Estimate)

Tuesday, 23 January 2001, 6:30 pm
Article: Deutsche Bank

Data Flash (New Zealand)
NZ Retail Sales - December 2000 (Advance Estimate)

Key points

Statistics NZ estimate that total retail sales increased 0.7% mom in December. This outcome was very close to the median market expectation of +0.5% mom and follows two months in which sales had been broadly flat.

Total retail sales were dragged lower by weaker motor vehicle registrations (-5% mom) and petrol prices (we estimate -8% mom). Excluding motor vehicles sales and servicing, retail sales are estimated to have increased by 1.3% mom.

Commentary
We estimate that nominal sales increased by around 0.8% qoq in Q4. Our analysis of the CPI suggests that the retail trade deflator rose 1.4% qoq. Thus, we think that the volume of retail sales fell by around 0.6% qoq.

Nonetheless, this outcome would be consistent with our forecast of +0.5% qoq GDP growth in Q4 (net export volumes - especially in the agricultural sector - are expected to have been the key driver of growth). With consumer confidence having bounced back sharply in recent months, we expect consumer spending to make a strengthening contribution to growth as 2001 progresses.

Darren Gibbs, Senior Economist

This, along with an extensive range of other publications, is available on our web site http://research.gm.db.com

In order to read our research you will require the Adobe Acrobat Reader which can be obtained from their website http://www.adobe.com for free.

Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines

BUSINESS, SCIENCE & TECH > >

Sky City : Auckland Convention Centre Cost Jumps By A Fifth

SkyCity Entertainment Group, the casino and hotel operator, is in talks with the government on how to fund the increased cost of as much as $130 million to build an international convention centre in downtown Auckland, with further gambling concessions ruled out. The Auckland-based company has increased its estimate to build the centre to between $470 million and $530 million as the construction boom across the country drives up building costs and design changes add to the bill.
More>>

ALSO:

RMTU: Mediation Between Lyttelton Port And Union Fails

The Rail and Maritime Union (RMTU) has opted to continue its overtime ban indefinitely after mediation with the Lyttelton Port of Christchurch (LPC) failed to progress collective bargaining. More>>

Earlier:

Rail And Maritime Transport Union - Lyttelton Port workers begin overtime ban
Lyttelton Port of Christchurch - LPC operations will continue as usual during overtime ban
Environment Canterbury - Next phase of Lyttelton Port recovery underway

Science Policy: Callaghan, NSC Funding Knocked In Submissions

Callaghan Innovation, which was last year allocated a budget of $566 million over four years to dish out research and development grants, and the National Science Challenges attracted criticism in submissions on the government’s draft national statement of science investment, with science funding largely seen as too fragmented. More>>

ALSO:

NZ Govt - Submissions on future of science system
Science Media Centre - Year in Review: the big science stories of 2014

Scoop Business: Spark, Voda And Telstra To Lay New Trans-Tasman Cable

Spark New Zealand and Vodafone, New Zealand’s two dominant telecommunications providers, in partnership with Australian provider Telstra, will spend US$70 million building a trans-Tasman submarine cable to bolster broadband traffic between the neighbouring countries and the rest of the world. More>>

ALSO:

Spark NZ - New trans-Tasman telecommunications cable plan confirmed
InternetNZ - New cable a positive sign for the future

Scoop Business - ComCom pushes out final decision on Chorus copper pricing
Commerce Commission - Backdating prices for Chorus’ copper lines and broadband
TUANZ - TUANZ welcomes further clarification by Commerce Commission
Spark NZ - Spark New Zealand Moving Ahead in 4g Network Build

Statistics: Current Account Deficit Widens

New Zealand's annual current account deficit was $6.1 billion (2.6 percent of GDP) for the year ended September 2014. This compares with a deficit of $5.8 billion (2.5 percent of GDP) for the year ended June 2014. More>>

ALSO:

Scoop Business - NZ Sept quarter current account deficit near six-year high

Still In The Red: NZ Govt Shunts Out Surplus To 2016

The New Zealand government has pushed out its targeted return to surplus for a year as falling dairy prices and a low inflation environment has kept a lid on its rising tax take, but is still dangling a possible tax cut in 2017, the next election year and promising to try and achieve the surplus pledge on which it campaigned for election in September. More>>

ALSO:

BusinessDesk - Economy can grow faster than thought before inflation bites
Audio - Treasury Forecast Announcement for 2015
NZ Treasury - Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2014
Office of the Clerk - Public Submissions - Budget Policy Statement 2015
NZ Govt - Government focused on surplus in 2014/15 - English: National is focussed on achieving surplus
Labour - Bill English’s face is redder than his books - Failure to diversify puts prosperity at risk
United Future - Dunne Speaks - Christmas Edition
Greens - Irresponsible tax cuts lead to seventh successive deficit
NZ First - Dishonesty Only Thing in Surplus in Forecasts
CTU - Cuts in public services likely from Budget Policy Statement
PricewaterhouseCoopers - New Zealand Government signals reversal of fortune
NZ Taxpayers' Union - Cut Taxes + Cut Waste = Surplus
TV3 Video - Don't blame deficit on tax cuts - English
Earlier - Cuts to Health Suggested

Job Insecurity: Time For Jobs That Count In The Meat Industry

“Meat Workers face it all”, says Graham Cooke, Meat Workers Union National Secretary. “Seasonal work, dangerous jobs, casual and zero hours contracts, and increasing pressure on workers to join non-union individual agreements. More>>