Video | Agriculture | Confidence | Economy | Energy | Employment | Finance | Media | Property | RBNZ | Science | SOEs | Tax | Technology | Telecoms | Tourism | Transport | Search

 


Overseas Merchandise Trade (Imports, February)

Data Flash (New Zealand)
Overseas Merchandise Trade (Imports, February)

Key Points

Statistics NZ reported a provisional trade surplus of $413m for the month of February compared with a surplus of $43m in February 2000. The average surplus for February over the past 10 years is $154m. The annual deficit declined to $1,064m compared with a deficit of $3,313m a year earlier. The market expectation had been for a surplus of around $190m, while our own forecast was for a surplus of $350m.

Although both exports and imports were lower than expected, the better than expected balance largely reflects much lower than expected import values. Imports of plant and machinery, intermediate goods and consumption goods were all very weak. However, this followed a stronger than expected level of imports in January. Therefore, it would be premature to draw strong conclusions at this stage.

The value of exports for the three months to February was 24.4% higher than a year earlier. With export prices estimated to be running at around 19% higher than a year earlier, today's outcome suggests that export volumes are expanding at an annual rate of around 5%. A breakdown of the export data will be made available with the final trade release on 14 March.

The estimated level of imports for the three months to February was unchanged from a year earlier. Excluding `lumpy' imports of capital transport and military equipment, `core' imports for the 3 months to February were 12.2% higher than a year earlier. We estimate that import prices are running a little over 10% higher than a year earlier, implying that core import volumes are broadly flat.

Commentary

The latest trade outcome was a little better than we had expected, with the surprise due largely to weaker than expected imports - the opposite outcome to that in January. Thus, in all likelihood, the very weak level of imports in February simply reflects the volatility often seen in monthly trade data, rather than indicating a significant slowing in domestic demand. If this conclusion is correct, we would expect to see a bounce-back in imports in March. However, a weaker outcome, especially for the plant and machinery and intermediate goods components, perhaps accompanied by a moderation in business confidence, would raise questions about the degree to which the global slowdown may already have begun to impact on the New Zealand economy.

The better than expected trade balance means that the improving trend in the current account deficit remains intact, notwithstanding last week's worse that expected Q4 outcome (which reflected a worsening in the investment income balance). As the chart below shows, the monthly trade balance has improved markedly in recent months. We expect a further solid surplus to be recorded in March. As a result, we expect that annual current account balance to decline to around 4.5% of GDP in Q1 2001 and to around 3% of GDP over the coming year.

Darren Gibbs, Senior Economist, New Zealand


This, along with an extensive range of other publications, is available on our web site http://research.gm.db.com

In order to read our research you will require the Adobe Acrobat Reader which can be obtained from their website http://www.adobe.com for free.

If you would like to be removed from our mailing lists please contact your usual Deutsche Bank representative.


© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines

 

Watch This Space: Mahia Rocket Lab Launch Site Officially Opened

Economic Development Minster Steven Joyce today opened New Zealand’s first orbital launch site, Rocket Lab Launch Complex 1, on the Mahia Peninsula on the North Island’s east coast. More>>

Earlier:

Marketing Rocks!
Ig Nobel Award Winners Assess The Personality Of Rocks

A Massey University marketing lecturer has received the 2016 Ig Nobel Prize for economics for a research project that asked university students to describe the “brand personalities” of three rocks. More>>

ALSO:

Nurofen Promotion: Reckitt Benckiser To Plead Guilty To Misleading Ads

Reckitt Benckiser (New Zealand) intends to plead guilty to charges of misleading consumers over the way it promoted a range of Nurofen products, the Commerce Commission says. More>>

ALSO:

Half A Billion Accounts, Including Xtra: Yahoo Confirms Huge Data Breach

The account information may have included names, email addresses, telephone numbers, dates of birth, hashed passwords (the vast majority with bcrypt) and, in some cases, encrypted or unencrypted security questions and answers. More>>

ALSO:

Rural Branches: Westpac To Close 19 Branches, ANZ Looks At 7

Westpac confirms it will close nineteen branches across the country; ANZ closes its Ngaruawahia branch and is consulting on plans to close six more branches; The bank workers union says many of its members are nervous about their futures and asking ... More>>

Interest Rates: RBNZ's Wheeler Keeps OCR At 2%

Reserve Bank governor Graeme Wheeler kept the official cash rate at 2 percent and said more easing will be needed to get inflation back within the target band. More>>

ALSO:

Get More From Scoop

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Business
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news