Video | Agriculture | Confidence | Economy | Energy | Employment | Finance | Media | Property | RBNZ | Science | SOEs | Tax | Technology | Telecoms | Tourism | Transport | Search

 

NBNZ Business Confidence (March)

Data Flash (New Zealand)

NBNZ Business Confidence (March)

Key points

Headline business confidence was broadly unchanged at +30 (net respondents) in March compared with +31 in February. However, in seasonally adjusted terms, confidence rose to +25 from +15 last month. Confidence appears strongest in the service sector of the economy.

Firms' assessment of their own activity prospects rose a further 3 points to +41 (to +34 in seasonally adjusted terms). The level of this index is consistent with economic growth of between 3 to 4% over the next year. Most of the other real economic activity indicators captured in the survey also improved. Reflecting negative global economic news, export prospects declined 4 points from +41 to +37 but the level of the index remains very high, at least in part reflecting the offsetting impact of a very stimulatory real exchange rate.

Pricing intentions and inflation expectations were little changed from last month and are still at levels that suggest significant further price pressure over the next 12 months, particularly in the retail sector.

Comment

The latest NBNZ survey, coming on top of yesterday's bullish WestpacTrust consumer confidence survey, further highlights the divergence in current economic fortunes in New Zealand versus those abroad. We would be surprised if the global slowdown did not moderate domestic confidence levels to some degree over coming months. However, we remain of the view that the New Zealand economy is well placed to grow at or around potential growth levels (which we assess as being no higher than 2.5%p.a.). Thus we anticipate only one further easing by the RBNZ in the current cycle - a 25bp cut in May.

Darren Gibbs, Senior Economist, New Zealand

This, along with an extensive range of other publications, is available on our web site http://research.gm.db.com

In order to read our research you will require the Adobe Acrobat Reader which can be obtained from their website http://www.adobe.com for free.

If you would like to be removed from our mailing lists please contact your usual Deutsche Bank representative.

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines

 

Media Mega Merger: StuffMe Hearing Argues Over Moveable Feast

New Zealand's two largest news publishers are appealing against the Commerce Commission's rejection of the proposal to merge their operations. More>>

Elsewhere:


Approval: Northern Corridor Decision Released

The approval gives the green light to construction of the last link of Auckland’s Western Ring Route, providing an alternative route from South Auckland to the North Shore. More>>

ALSO:


Crown Accounts: $4.1 Billion Surplus

The New Zealand Government has achieved its third fiscal surplus in a row with the Crown accounts for the year ended 30 June 2017 showing an OBEGAL surplus of $4.1 billion, $2.2 billion stronger than last year, Finance Minister Steven Joyce says. More>>

ALSO:

Mycoplasma Bovis: One New Property Tests Positive

The newly identified property... was already under a Restricted Place notice under the Biosecurity Act. More>>

Accounting Scandal: Suspension Of Fuji Xerox From All-Of-Government Contract

General Manager of New Zealand Government Procurement John Ivil says, “FXNZ has been formally suspended from the Print Technology and Associated Services (PTAS) contract and terminated from the Office Supplies contract.” More>>