Video | Agriculture | Confidence | Economy | Energy | Employment | Finance | Media | Property | RBNZ | Science | SOEs | Tax | Technology | Telecoms | Tourism | Transport | Search

 

NBNZ Business Confidence (March)

Data Flash (New Zealand)

NBNZ Business Confidence (March)

Key points

Headline business confidence was broadly unchanged at +30 (net respondents) in March compared with +31 in February. However, in seasonally adjusted terms, confidence rose to +25 from +15 last month. Confidence appears strongest in the service sector of the economy.

Firms' assessment of their own activity prospects rose a further 3 points to +41 (to +34 in seasonally adjusted terms). The level of this index is consistent with economic growth of between 3 to 4% over the next year. Most of the other real economic activity indicators captured in the survey also improved. Reflecting negative global economic news, export prospects declined 4 points from +41 to +37 but the level of the index remains very high, at least in part reflecting the offsetting impact of a very stimulatory real exchange rate.

Pricing intentions and inflation expectations were little changed from last month and are still at levels that suggest significant further price pressure over the next 12 months, particularly in the retail sector.

Comment

The latest NBNZ survey, coming on top of yesterday's bullish WestpacTrust consumer confidence survey, further highlights the divergence in current economic fortunes in New Zealand versus those abroad. We would be surprised if the global slowdown did not moderate domestic confidence levels to some degree over coming months. However, we remain of the view that the New Zealand economy is well placed to grow at or around potential growth levels (which we assess as being no higher than 2.5%p.a.). Thus we anticipate only one further easing by the RBNZ in the current cycle - a 25bp cut in May.

Darren Gibbs, Senior Economist, New Zealand

This, along with an extensive range of other publications, is available on our web site http://research.gm.db.com

In order to read our research you will require the Adobe Acrobat Reader which can be obtained from their website http://www.adobe.com for free.

If you would like to be removed from our mailing lists please contact your usual Deutsche Bank representative.

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines

 

"Broad-Based Growth": GDP Rises 1 Percent In June Quarter

Gross domestic product (GDP) rose 1.0 percent in the June 2018 quarter, up from 0.5 percent last quarter, Stats NZ said today. This is the largest quarterly rise in two years. More>>

ALSO:

Judicial Review: China Steel Tarrif Rethink Ordered

On 5 July 2017 the Minister determined not to impose duties on Chinese galvanised steel coil imports. NZ Steel applied for judicial review of the Minister’s decision. More>>

Debt: NZ Banks Accelerate Lending In June Quarter

New Zealand's nine major lenders boosted lending at the fastest quarterly pace in almost two years as fears over bad debts subsided. More>>

ALSO:

Balance Of Trade: Annual Current Account Deficit Widens To $9.5 Billion

New Zealand’s current account deficit for the year ended June 2018 widened to $9.5 billion, 3.3 percent of GDP, Stats NZ said today. More>>

ALSO: