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ANZ Job Ads Survey - September 2001

Data Flash (New Zealand)

NZ: ANZ Job Ads Survey - September 2001

The number of job advertisements decreased by 2.1% mom in September, following a 2.6% mom decline in August. The number of advertisements in September was 2.0% lower than a year earlier but just 4.6% below the record high recorded in July.

A breakdown of the weekly data suggests no perceptible change in advertising in the second half of the month as a result of the tragic events in the US on 11 September.

We think that the current level of advertising remains consistent with ongoing robust rates of employment growth of around 1.5% yoy. We forecast employment growth of 0.4% qoq in Q3. This would reduce the annual growth rate to 2.4% from 3.2% in Q2.

That said, the second consecutive monthly decline suggests that advertising levels may have peaked - a conclusion that would be strengthened if a further decline is recorded in October. With confidence levels having been dented by the terrorist attacks in the US, not to mention the near-collapse of Air New Zealand, we would be surprised if job advertising levels did not soften further over coming months, consistent with our expectation that the economy will record only marginal employment growth in 2002.

Darren Gibbs, Senior Economist, New Zealand

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