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RBNZ MPS: Table One

RBNZ MPS: Table One


Table C
Summary of economic projections
(Annual percentage change, unless specified otherwise)
Actuals Projections
March year 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Price measures
CPI* 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.0 1.7 3.1 2.6 21/2 21/4 13/4
Wages 3.6 4.0 2.6 2.7 1.9 3.1 3 31/2 31/4 3
Import prices (in New Zealand dollars) -1.3 -4.6 2.9 2.7 11.2 7.4 -21/2 -13/4 1 11/4
Export prices (in New Zealand dollars) -3.5 -6.3 4.8 -1.1 9.6 20.1 -61/4 -61/2 11/2 13/4

Monetary conditions
90-day rate (year average) 8.8 9.0 8.0 6.2 5.2 6.6 5.4 61/2 7 61/2
TWI (year average) 62.2 66.4 64.4 57.3 56.1 50.4 50.3 531/2 553/4 571/4

Output
GDP (production, annual average % change) 4.1 3.1 1.9 0.4 4.7 2.7 3 23/4 21/2 21/4
GDP (production, March qtr to March qtr) 4.1 1.8 0.4 2.7 5.6 1.0 33/4 3 21/4 21/2
Output gap (% of potential GDP, year average) 1.9 1.3 0.3 -1.8 0.3 0.3 3/4 3/4 1/4 -1/4

Labour market
Total employment 4.4 1.2 0.0 0.6 1.4 2.3 21/4 2 13/4 11/4
Unemployment rate (March qtr, s.a.) 6.2 6.5 7.2 7.2 6.4 5.4 51/4 51/4 51/4 51/2
Labour productivity (annual average % change) -0.2 1.4 1.9 0.6 2.3 1.3 11/2 1 1/2 1

Key balances
Government operating balance 3.5 1.9 2.5 1.7 1.4 1.2 11/4 21/2 23/4 23/4
(% of GDP, year to June)
Current account balance -5.4 -6.2 -5.6 -4.3 -7.0 -4.8 -31/2 -5 -43/4 -41/4
(% of GDP, year to March)
Terms of trade (annual average % change) -2.2 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.1 3.6 33/4 -61/4 -1/2 1/2
Household savings rate -3.5 -2.5 -4.6 -4.2 -5.2 -3.7 -31/4 -53/4 -4 -33/4
(% of disposable income, year to March)

World economy
World GDP (annual average % change) 3.9 4.1 3.4 1.9 4.5 3.5 11/4 3 33/4 31/2
World CPI inflation 2.6 2.2 2.4 0.9 2.0 2.9 1 13/4 2 21/4

s.a = seasonally adjusted
* This series is annual CPIX inflation until the June 1999 quarter, and annual CPI inflation thereafter (adjusted by Statistics New Zealand to exclude interest and section prices from the September 1999
quarter to the June 2000 quarter).

Notes for this table are in Appendix 5

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