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ANZ Job Ads Survey - May 2002

Data Flash (New Zealand)

The number of newspaper job advertisements fell by 2.9% mom in May following a 6.2% rise in April and a 2.5% decline in March. The timing of Easter has had a substantial impact on this data.

The level of advertising in May was 4.4% lower than a year earlier. The ANZ estimate that the underlying trend in job ads is monthly increase of around 1%.

The relationship between job ads and employment growth has broken down over the past twelve months, with job creation having far exceeded the level of advertising. That appears to reflect a shift in the way employers try to attract new staff. Notwithstanding the recent upward trend in job ads, we estimate that employment growth slowed significantly in the June quarter (to +0.1% qoq, from +1.3% in Q1). That estimate is based on the fact that relatively strong job creation occurred over the December and March quarters, as well as on recent trends in business confidence.

Ulf Schoefisch, Chief Economist, New Zealand

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