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ANZ Commodity Price Index - July 2002

Sun, 4 Aug 2002

Data Flash (New Zealand)
ANZ Commodity Price Index - July 2002

The average foreign currency price of New Zealand's commodity exports fell by 0.7% mom in July. The average price was 9.6% below last year's level.

In foreign currency terms, dairy prices fell by a further 1.2% mom, while meat and wool prices also recorded further modest weakness. By contrast, forestry product prices continued to rise further (+1.2% mom), taking the yoy growth rate up to +17.9%.

Reflecting the renewed depreciation of the NZD during July, the aggregate NZD price index rose by 2.4% mom. It was 21.4% weaker than a year earlier.

These latest data are consistent with our forecast of a 1.5% qoq decline in the terms of trade in Q3, following a similar result for the June quarter. For 2002 as a whole we expect a 4.4% fall in the terms of trade, which will make a significant contribution to the expected slowdown in GDP growth.

Ulf Schoefisch, Chief Economist, New Zealand

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