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MPS: Summary of economic projections

Table C
Summary of economic projections
(Annual percentage change, unless specified otherwise)

::Actuals::Projections
March year::1997::1998::1999::2000::2001::2002::2003::2004::2005::2006

Price measures
CPI*::2.0::1.7::1.0::1.7::3.1::2.6::2 1/2::2 ::2 1/2::2
Labour costs::2.0::1.9::1.6::1.4::1.6::2.1::2 ::2 ::2 ::2
Import prices (in New Zealand dollars) ::-4.6::2.9::2.7::11.2::7.4::-2.9::-8 3/4::2 ::4 3/4::3
Export prices (in New Zealand dollars) ::-6.3::4.2::-0.6::9.9::20.6::-3.5::-14 1/4::-2 3/4::5 1/4::3 3/4

Monetary conditions
90-day rate (year average)::9.0::8.0::6.2::5.2::6.6::5.4::6 ::6 ::6 ::6
TWI (year average)::66.4::64.4::57.3::56.1::50.4::50.3::56 1/2::61 1/4::58 1/4::57

Output
GDP (production, annual average % change)::3.4::1.4::0.4::4.9::2.5::3.2::4 1/4::2 1/2::2 1/4::2 1/4
GDP (production, March qtr to March qtr)::2.1::0.0::2.4::6.1::0.8::3.9::4 1/4::2 1/2::2 ::2 1/2
Output gap (% of potential GDP, year average)::1.5::0.2::-1.8::0.4::0.3::0.5::1 1/2:: 3/4::0::- 3/4

Labour market
Total employment::1.2::0.0::0.6::1.4::2.3::3.5::1 1/2::1 3/4::1 1/2::1 1/4
Unemployment rate (March qtr, s.a.)::6.5::7.2::7.2::6.3::5.4::5.3::5 1/4::5 ::5 ::5 1/4
Trend labour productivity (annual % change)::1.0::1.3::1.5::1.4::1.4::1.4::1 1/4::1 1/4::1 1/4::1 1/4

Key balances
Government operating balance (% of GDP, year to June)::1.9::2.5::1.7::1.3::1.2::1.9::2 ::2 3/4::3 1/4:: 3 1/2
Current account balance (% of GDP, year to March)::-6.1::-5.5::-4.1::-6.6::-4.6::-2.1::-4 ::-5 ::-5 1/4:: -4 1/2
Terms of trade (annual average % change)::-0.8::-1.0::-0.4::-0.2::4.4::4.1::-5 1/2::-4 1/4::- 1/4::1
Household savings rate::-3.0::-4.0::-4.8::-0.8::-4.4::-3.7::-5 1/4::-6 ::-5 1/2::-5 1/2
(% of disposable income, year to March)

World economy
World GDP (annual average % change)::4.2::3.5::1.9::4.3::3.5::1.1::3 ::2 3/4::3 1/2::3 1/4::
World CPI inflation::2.2::2.4::0.9::2.0::2.8::1.2::1 3/4::1 1/2::2 ::2

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