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More Families and Households by 2021

More Families and Households by 2021

The number of families in New Zealand is projected to increase by 230,000 or 22 percent from 1.05 million in 2001 to 1.28 million in 2021, according to 2001-base family and household projections released by Statistics New Zealand. The number of households in New Zealand is projected to increase by 380,000 or 26 percent from 1.44 million in 2001 to 1.82 million in 2021.

A family refers to a couple, with or without child(ren), or one parent with child(ren), usually living together in a household. A household consists of either one person usually living alone, or two or more people usually living together and sharing facilities, in a private dwelling.

Families consisting of couples without children are expected to become the most common family type from 2006, surpassing two-parent families. Couple without children families are expected to number 614,000 in 2021 compared with 407,000 in 2001, an increase of 207,000 or 51 percent.

The number of one-parent families is also expected to increase, from 198,000 in 2001 to 251,000 in 2021, while the number of two-parent families is expected to decline from 446,000 to 418,000 over the same period. These changes reflect a continuation of recent trends of lower birth rates, more single parenting and general ageing of the population.

Two-parent and one-parent families include children of all ages. The number of one-parent families with dependent children (aged under 18 years and not in full-time employment) is expected to increase throughout the projection period, from 153,000 in 2001 to 196,000 in 2021.

In contrast, the number of two-parent families with dependent children is projected to decrease from 372,000 in 2001 to 355,000 in 2021.

Among households, one-person households will increase by 149,000 or 45 percent over the projection period from 333,000 to 482,000, largely due to the ageing of the population. People aged 65 years and over are projected to account for 47 percent of people in one-person households in 2021, compared with 42 percent in 2001.

The number of family households is projected to increase by 210,000 or 21 percent between 2001 and 2021, from 1.02 million to 1.23 million. Other multiperson households (households containing more than one person, but not containing a family) are projected to number 102,000 in 2021, compared with 88,000 in 2001.

The ageing population is also expected to increase the number of people living in non-private dwellings, up 32 percent from 76,000 in 2001 to 100,000 in 2021. Almost 40 percent of people living in non-private dwellings are projected to be aged 80 years and over in 2021, compared with 28 percent in 2001.

The projections above are taken from projection series 4B, which is one of nine alternative series produced using different assumptions about future changes in migration and living arrangement type rates. All nine series have identical fertility and mortality assumptions, as alternative fertility and mortality assumptions make an insignificant difference to the projected number of families and households.

Brian Pink Government Statistician END

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