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Property market still refuses to lie down

Media release
9 September 2005

Property market still refuses to lie down

Statistics released today by QV indicate the residential property market is still on the rise, as residential property values grew by 14.7% for the 12 months to August, up from 14.3% annual growth to July.

With Nelson property values having increased by 1.3% annually (they were reported to be declining by as much as 4% earlier in the year), property values are now growing in every area of the country.

“The continued growth in property values is a reflection of a market that is remaining buoyant. There are still a number of provincial areas including Wanganui (42.9%) and New Plymouth (35.5%) where values are growing at increasing rates, driven by factors like an availability of affordable housing and attractive returns for investors”, says QV spokesperson Blue Hancock.

Most main urban areas are also doing well, with residential properties in Hamilton increasing in value by 25.4% annually, a substantial increase from 15.9% growth reported in January. Dunedin recorded 21.2% growth, while residential properties in both Christchurch (19.5%) and Wellington (10.5%) grew at their highest recorded levels since QV began reporting the new monthly statistics in January.

The trends in the Auckland market are consistent with those reported last month, as residential properties in Auckland City grew in value by 4.4%, outdone by surrounding areas Papakura (14.1%), Manukau (12%), Waitakere (11.9%) and North Shore (11.8%).

ENDS

QV RESIDENTIAL PRICE MOVEMENT REPORT - as at August 2005

City / Region August 2005 Property Value Growth % (Annual % change) / July 2005 Property Value Growth % (Annual % change) / August 2005 Average sale price

Far North 34 33 $277,501
Whangarei 27.3 25.2 $270,688
Kaipara 19.7 23.7 $216,753
Rodney 12.7 13.1 $417,125
- Hibiscus Coast 11.9 12.4 $426,654
- Rodney (North) 14.5 14.3 $402,319
North Shore City (A) # 11.8 11.3 $473,734
- Coastal North Shore 12.1 12.3 $533,543
- North Shore Onewa 11.3 10.7 $391,422
- North Harbour 11.4 10.1 $477,401
Waitakere City (A) # 11.9 11.3 $343,674
Auckland City (A) # 4.4 5.4 $474,260
- Auckland City (Central) 2.1 1.3 $441,731
- Auckland City (East) 5.3 7.9 $598,115
- Auckland City (South) 6.7 6.7 $407,567
- Islands 10.2 11.7 $480,492
Manukau City (A) # 12 10.7 $345,652
- Manukau East 8.8 6.6 $455,295
- Manukau Central 15.7 16.3 $272,958
- Manukau North West 15.6 14 $301,146
Papakura (A) # 14.1 12.7 $284,752
Franklin 20.7 N/A $293,049
Thames Coromandel 16.8 18.1 $407,793
Hauraki N/A N/A N/A
Waikato 26.6 28.6 $189,801
Matamata Piako N/A N/A N/A
Hamilton # 25.4 24.8 $275,922
- Hamilton North East 22.6 22.5 $333,665
- Central City/North West 27.2 26.7 $258,191
- Hamilton South East 24.7 25.2 $266,055
- Hamilton South West 29.2 27.6 $252,584
Waipa 30.7 26.2 $248,522
Otorohanga 50.4 50.3 $146,693
South Waikato 40.2 35.4 $99,468
Waitomo 32.4 28.2 $106,067
Taupo 14.1 14.8 $333,183
Western Bay of Plenty 13.5 18 $366,925
Tauranga # 10 9.6 $397,980
Rotorua 22 20.5 $196,901
Whakatane 46.2 41.8 $278,397
Kawerau 47.2 42.3 $101,405
Opotiki 49.8 56.7 $183,971
Gisborne 29.1 28.9 $206,957
Wairoa 33.2 36.8 $107,731
Hastings 21 18.7 $258,515
Napier City # 14.8 14.4 $306,911
Central Hawkes Bay 17.2 19.2 $154,203
New Plymouth 35.5 35.4 $273,289
Stratford 52.7 57.2 $146,841
South Taranaki 40.6 38.9 $131,291
Ruapehu 36.3 26 $114,728
Wanganui 42.9 41.3 $150,661
Rangitikei 36.4 34.6 $110,482
Manawatu 20.3 18.1 $173,247
Palmerston North # 18.5 16.9 $231,738
Tararua 22.1 19.8 $110,579
Horowhenua 13.3 14.3 $162,188
Kapiti Coast 11.8 13.1 $279,204
Porirua (W) # 16.4 16.6 $288,008
Upper Hutt (W) # 15.1 12 $241,420
Lower Hutt (W) # 15.1 14.5 $282,331
Wellington City (W) # 10.5 9.5 $398,409
- Wellington City & Southern Suburbs 8.6 8.1 $375,575
- Eastern Suburbs 9.8 8.9 $436,347
- North Wellington 11.8 10.8 $373,276
- Western Suburbs 11.3 10.4 $464,912
Masterton 11.5 11 $184,452
Carterton 11.4 10.6 $154,934
South Wairarapa 13.2 16.8 $180,132
Tasman 4.1 2.7 $310,803
Nelson # 1.3 -0.7 $313,792
Marlborough 12.8 7.2 $275,589
Kaikoura 8.3 15.9 $345,250
Buller 35.3 39.8 $135,708
Grey 32.7 26.4 $152,191
Westland 20.7 25.4 $177,463
Hurunui 16.9 21.5 $260,519
Waimakariri 20.7 21.6 $267,974
Christchurch City # 19.5 18.9 $295,243
- East 21.1 21.3 $244,773
- Hills 19.3 18.2 $418,743
- Central City and North 18 15.9 $349,527
- Southwest 20.2 20.4 $269,443
Banks Peninsula 21.7 21.4 $393,953
Selwyn 37.2 37.8 $276,816
Ashburton 22.9 22.4 $181,452
Timaru 23.4 23.4 $177,696
MacKenzie 24.9 19.2 $187,579
Waimate 19 19.1 $130,255
Waitaki 11.2 13 $173,080
Central Otago 17.8 14.7 $244,015
Queenstown Lakes 11.7 11.3 $519,701
Dunedin # 21.2 21.4 $230,679
- Central/Northern City 20.3 22 $240,705
- Peninsular/Coastal Dunedin 22.3 30.5 $198,696
- Southern City 19.6 19.3 $218,285
- Taieri 22.5 19.8 $246,466
Clutha 25.4 22.5 $144,037
Southland 13.6 14.5 $134,220
Gore 9 9.9 $115,931
Invercargill # 9.5 8.9 $141,693

Total NZ 14.7 14.3 $307,977


Auckland Region (A) 8.3 8.3 $407,513
Wellington Region (W) 12.6 11.6 $333,944
Main Urban Areas # 11.6 11.3 $344,048

Notes on the above data:

If a City or Region is shown in italics with an * this indicates the values for this area may not be statistically accurate as they are based on a low volume of sales.
N/A - indicates that either there were too few sales to report a Property Value Growth % or that the data for this period was unavailable

The information included in the above table is calculated based on the sales data entered into QV's system for the previous 3 month period. For example, information for the period ending June will be calculated based on sales entered between April 1 and June 30.

Property Value Growth is the annual % change in residential property values, calculated using QV's House Price Index methodology. The residential sales entered into QV's system for the previous 3 month period are compared to the same period of the previous year to identify the annual percentage change in residential property values. Average sale prices are calculated based on residential sales entered into QV's system for the previous 3 month period.

Residential Price Movement
Questions and Answers:

The following information is provided as background to the Residential Price Movement statistics.

1. What is the Residential Price Movement Report?

The Residential Price Movement Report is a new set of residential property statistics that provides an estimate of the change in residential property values over the previous 12 months for areas throughout New Zealand. Residential sales compiled by QV for the previous 3 months are compared to the same period of the previous year to identify the annual percentage change in residential property values. The residential sales included are for residential houses, apartments, flats, home and income properties, and houses converted to flats.

2. Why has the Residential Price Movement Report been developed?

The Residential Price Movement Report has been developed to provide a timely indicator of residential property value movement, using the latest residential sales data compiled by QV for the previous 3 month period.

QV has previously only released property statistics quarterly. QV’s measure of price movement has been the Quarterly House Price Index (QHPI). The QHPI only includes sales that have been notified to the Territorial Authority that sold within the quarter. As sales of properties can sometimes take 4-6 weeks to settle, the QHPI is released after an extended period to incorporate as much sales activity from the quarter, which results in increased statistical accuracy, but also a less timely output.

As the Residential Price Movement Report uses the sales compiled by QV over a 3 month period, rather than the sales that necessarily sold within that period, the Residential Price Movement Report can be released on a more frequent basis, providing a timelier indicator of property value movement. The Residential Price Movement Report also includes sales activity in other residential property sectors including apartments and flats.

3. How frequently will the Residential Price Movement Report be released?

The Residential Price Movement Report data will be available to the media on a monthly basis. It will be released to the media for publication on either the second or third Monday of each month.

4. How current is the Residential Price Movement data?

The data contained in the Residential Price Movement Report is based on the residential sales compiled by QV for the previous 3 month period.

For example, the Residential Price Movement Report as at January 2005 will include sales compiled by QV up until 31 January 2005 and include sales compiled since 1 November 2004.

5. Why does the Residential Price Movement Report include sales compiled by QV over a 3 month period?

Sales are included over a 3 month period rather than a single month to ensure that there are sufficient sales volumes to calculate statistically accurate property value growth.

6. How is the Residential Price Movement data calculated?

The Residential Price Movement Report includes two indicators of property value; the property value growth, and average sales prices.

Property Value Growth
The Property Value Growth uses QV’s House Price Index methodology, which generates a residential index for each area by recognising the sales price of each property sold compared to its capital value. This ensures the index provides a measure of change in property values, without fluctuations caused by higher sales volumes in one or more property sectors (e.g. high volumes of apartment sales or investment properties).

Residential sales compiled by QV for the previous 3 month period are compared to the sales compiled by QV for the same period the previous year to identify the annual percentage change in property values.

Average Sales Prices
The Average Sales Prices calculated in the Residential Price Movement Report are based on residential sales compiled by QV for the previous 3 month period.

7. Does property value growth reflect a change in average sales prices?

No. Property Value Growth does not reflect a change in average sales prices, which are only given to enable a comparison of sale prices for one month compared to the last. Property Value Growth uses QV’s House Price Index methodology to generate a residential index for each area by recognising the sales price of each property sold compared to its capital value.


8. Why does QV recommend using the Property Value Growth rather than Average Sales Prices to verify the change in property values over time?

Average Sales Prices are only provided in the Residential Price Movement Report as a broad indicator of property values in an area to assist comparisons between areas. QV recommends referring to the property value growth to verify change in property values over time, rather than the average sales price, as the average sales prices can be impacted by the types and categories of properties selling, or low volumes of property sales.

9. When was the Residential Price Movement Report first released?

The Residential Price Movement Report was first released for the period ending January 31 2005. The QV Quarterly House Price Index, which measures the movement of house values over time, is available back until 1989. QV is also able to produce statistics using its database going back to 1985 for most areas.

10. Why does the Residential Price Movement Report provide an ‘estimate of property value’ only?

Data in the Residential Price Movement Report provides estimates only of property value, and should not be considered ‘final’ statistics, as not all sales for the 3 month period will be included due to the time the data is released. This is because some sales within the 3 month period will not have been notified to the Territorial Authority in time for inclusion in the Residential Price Movement Report data. Notification of the sale to the Territorial Authority does not occur until after the sale has been settled and documents forwarded by the solicitor. This generally introduces a lag of 4 to 6 weeks before the Territorial Authority records the sale.

QV produces final property statistics which are released after an extended period to incorporate a greater level of sales activity, resulting in a more statistically accurate output. Final property statistics, including the QV Quarterly House Price Index, can be purchased online at www.qv.co.nz.

11. Why do some Territorial Authorities show ‘N/A’ (Not Available)?

Territorial authorities may show ‘N/A’ if there is insufficient data available at the time of publication to produce statistically accurate outputs. This may occur when there has been very low sales activity in an area, or alternatively when QV has not been supplied sufficient residential sales volumes by a Territorial Authority for a particular period.

12. Why does QV caution against using statistics with low volumes of sales?

Statistics based on low sales volumes should be used with caution, as low volumes of sales are insufficient to create statistically accurate outputs. Any statistics calculated based on sales volumes of less than 50 sales appear in Italics in the Residential Price Movement Report data.

13. How are the regions and city areas defined?

Property Value Growth statistics are provided for each council area throughout New Zealand. Five main urban areas (Auckland, Hamilton, Wellington, Christchurch, and Dunedin) also have property value growth statistics available for areas within the cities. These city areas have been defined through consultation with QV Valuers that have local knowledge of each area.

Property Value Growth Statistics are not provided for individual suburbs, as most suburbs have insufficient sales volumes to ensure statistically accurate property value growth calculations.

14. Where does QV source the property data?

QV maintains a national database on Property Information that it creates by sourcing updates of the District Valuation Roll from all NZ Territorial Local Authorities/councils.

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