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Economic Survey of Manufacturing

Economic Survey of Manufacturing – New Series: June 2006
Economic Survey of Manufacturing

Changes to the seasonally adjusted and trend series for sales, for the meat and dairy product manufacturing industries

Introduction

Statistics New Zealand is revising the seasonally adjusted and trend sales series for the meat and dairy product manufacturing industry. The new series will reflect the new seasonal pattern of the meat and dairy industry, and will be introduced for the release of the March 2006 quarter results for the Economic Survey of Manufacturing on 16 June 2006.

Background

In the September 2002 quarter, deregulation resulted in significant restructuring within the dairy industry. This created a discontinuity in the meat and dairy product manufacturing series. As a result the dairy industry was expected to change its sales pattern, from following the production cycles to tracking the dairy exports cycle. This was based on the ability of businesses to produce and sell product at their convenience, with the ability to build up stocks, as opposed to the selling of product to the producer board immediately.

The change in the meat and dairy industry since the September 2002 quarter saw a change in the seasonal adjustment method used, from direct to indirect seasonal adjustment. This was to allow the series to better respond to changes in the seasonality of the components.

Statistics New Zealand provides more information on the direct and indirect adjustment on the website in the seasonal adjustment FAQ pages.

Changes

A review of the on-going effects of the restructure has been completed and new seasonal factors have been introduced.

The new seasonal adjustment series method remains an indirect adjustment, as introduced in September 2002.

The affected identifiers are:

MANQ.SNMCZ1AS Meat and Dairy Product Manufacturing Operating Income Seasonally
Adjusted
MANQ.SNMCZ1AT Meat and Dairy Product Manufacturing Operating Income Trend
MANQ.SNMCZZAS All Manufacturing Operating Income Seasonally Adjusted
MANQ.SNMCZZAT All Manufacturing Operating Income Trend

A key use of the manufacturing survey is in the calculation of the manufacturing value-added, for the compilation of quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

This change in methodology will have no impact on the compilation of the manufacturing component for quarterly GDP, and as a result there will be no historical revisions.

Implementation

The results and analysis of the Economic Survey of Manufacturing for the March 2006 quarter, to be published 16 June 2006, will be based on the new series, resulting in differences to the meat and dairy product manufacturing industry and to the total manufacturing sales series.

Both the new and old series will be included within the Hot Off The Press as downloadable excel tables for comparison.

From the June 2006 quarter, published results will be based on the new series. However, the old series will be available on request until at least the end of 2006.

ENDS

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