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Strong lift in manufacturing activity

Media release

15 June 2006

EMBARGO: 16 June 2006


Strong lift in manufacturing activity


The month of May confirms a change in fortune for manufacturers, according to the Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI).

May’s seasonally adjusted PMI, at 58.2 was up 4.9 points on April, the highest level of activity since December 2004. This follows positive results for the previous three months after a bleak period in the second half of 2005.

A PMI reading above 50.0 indicates that manufacturing is generally expanding; below 50.0 that it is declining.

PMI values for May in 2003, 2004 and 2005 were 52.4, 56.9 and 52.1 respectively.

Activity by region showed increased activity throughout the country, with particularly strong results for the South Island regions. The Canterbury/Westland result recovered from its April results to show the strongest expansion in May (59.1), closely followed by the Otago/Southland region (58.5).

All five seasonally adjusted indexes again recorded expansion in May 2006, with values for most the highest since late 2004/early 2005. New orders (61.1) recorded the highest value for the month, followed by production (59.5). Interestingly, finished stocks (55.7) recorded its highest value since the survey began in 2002.

Although comments from manufacturers were generally more negative (54.5%) than positive (45.5%), the gap has continued to close. The lower value of the New Zealand dollar has been seen as a positive result for most export orientated manufacturers, while there has been an increase in the number of manufacturers commenting about increased overseas orders.

ENDS

See...
PMI Index, May 2006

Seasonally Adjusted Time Series - Business NZ PMI
/ PMI / PRODUCTION / EMPLOYMENT / NEW ORDERS / FINISHED STOCKS / DELIVERIES
Aug-02 / 57.5 / 58.9 / 54.4 / 60.4 / 52.1 / 57.2
Sep-02 / 57.3 / 58.6 / 52.0 / 61.0 / 52.7 / 58.7
Oct-02 / 59.1 / 61.8 / 54.3 / 63.3 / 53.1 / 58.0
Nov-02 / 57.3 / 60.1 / 52.6 / 60.6 / 51.9 / 57.2
Dec-02 / 56.5 / 59.1 / 52.0 / 60.7 / 52.4 / 55.7
Jan-03 / 56.0 / 59.0 / 52.7 / 55.6 / 53.5 / 59.9
Feb-03 / 54.2 / 55.1 / 56.1 / 53.2 / 54.9 / 52.2
Mar-03 / 53.1 / 52.3 / 51.1 / 54.0 / 53.5 / 51.4
Apr-03 / 53.9 / 54.7 / 50.1 / 56.0 / 53.1 / 53.0
May-03 / 52.4 / 52.3 / 50.8 / 52.8 / 53.4 / 52.0
Jun-03 / 51.7 / 50.6 / 50.0 / 53.0 / 51.6 / 52.7
Jul-03 / 53.4 / 52.3 / 51.4 / 54.7 / 53.6 / 54.3
Aug-03 / 51.2 / 48.2 / 51.5 / 55.3 / 50.4 / 48.4
Sep-03 / 56.4 / 57.8 / 52.8 / 58.7 / 54.2 / 56.5
Oct-03 / 62.2 / 68.3 / 53.0 / 68.3 / 54.4 / 58.5
Nov-03 / 56.7 / 57.2 / 56.0 / 60.3 / 47.0 / 57.5
Dec-03 / 54.1 / 55.0 / 50.4 / 56.3 / 51.6 / 57.4
Jan-04 / 55.8 / 57.4 / 50.7 / 59.0 / 52.5 / 57.5
Feb-04 / 56.4 / 56.8 / 50.0 / 61.0 / 53.6 / 57.5
Mar-04 / 59.3 / 61.1 / 51.0 / 63.8 / 52.7 / 59.6
Apr-04 / 59.4 / 61.4 / 51.2 / 64.9 / 51.5 / 60.1
May-04 / 56.9 / 58.1 / 52.4 / 60.7 / 51.5 / 58.8
Jun-04 / 60.7 / 62.8 / 53.4 / 67.0 / 52.8 / 58.9
Jul-04 / 59.3 / 62.4 / 52.0 / 64.0 / 54.5 / 56.7
Aug-04 / 58.1 / 59.1 / 50.9 / 62.8 / 55.1 / 58.8
Sep-04 / 53.6 / 53.9 / 52.3 / 55.5 / 52.8 / 52.9
Oct-04 / 54.3 / 56.3 / 50.5 / 57.9 / 52.2 / 51.7
Nov-04 / 58.2 / 59.8 / 53.0 / 61.0 / 55.2 / 60.5
Dec-04 / 58.2 / 62.3 / 55.5 / 60.6 / 54.3 / 55.6
Jan-05 / 57.0 / 55.8 / 55.8 / 61.1 / 53.8 / 56.1
Feb-05 / 55.6 / 56.5 / 52.9 / 58.8 / 49.5 / 55.6
Mar-05 / 51.9 / 53.0 / 48.4 / 51.4 / 52.0 / 52.3
Apr-05 / 52.5 / 52.8 / 51.7 / 53.2 / 51.2 / 51.5
May-05 / 52.1 / 52.2 / 49.2 / 53.2 / 51.6 / 52.2
Jun-05 / 50.7 / 50.7 / 49.3 / 50.2 / 52.8 / 51.4
Jul-05 / 50.0 / 48.7 / 48.7 / 51.0 / 48.9 / 51.6
Aug-05 / 52.4 / 53.1 / 51.2 / 52.6 / 51.1 / 53.5
Sep-05 / 49.1 / 48.7 / 48.1 / 50.4 / 49.0 / 49.5
Oct-05 / 47.2 / 46.2 / 46.3 / 48.3 / 49.8 / 47.0
Nov-05 / 44.6 / 44.2 / 46.1 / 43.6 / 49.6 / 43.6
Dec-05 / 47.7 / 47.2 / 47.4 / 47.1 / 54.2 / 48.4
Jan-06 / 48.5 / 48.5 / 46.9 / 50.7 / 48.2 / 48.5
Feb-06 / 51.3 / 52.2 / 48.8 / 53.4 / 48.1 / 51.7
Mar-06 / 53.8 / 54.4 / 50.2 / 55.2 / 49.4 / 54.3
Apr-06 / 53.3 / 52.4 / 52.0 / 54.2 / 52.0 / 53.9
May-06 / 58.2 / 59.5 / 53.5 / 61.1 / 55.7 / 56.3

Unadjusted Time Series - Business NZ PMI
/ PMI / Production / Employment / New_Orders / Finished_Stocks / Deliveries / Northern / Central / Canterbury / Otago
Aug-02 / 58.2 / 59.6 / 53.7 / 61.2 / 53.3 / 59.1 / 57.7 / 56.6 / 62.0 / 58.9
Sep-02 / 60.5 / 63.8 / 52.7 / 64.1 / 56.0 / 60.9 / 58.1 / 60.3 / 63.6 / 67.0
Oct-02 / 61.5 / 64.6 / 55.6 / 65.5 / 54.8 / 60.8 / 59.6 / 62.3 / 65.3 / 62.5
Nov-02 / 65.0 / 69.8 / 57.8 / 69.4 / 56.0 / 63.6 / 65.4 / 67.1 / 58.8 / 65.2
Dec-02 / 56.4 / 58.1 / 50.8 / 61.7 / 49.0 / 55.6 / 54.2 / 54.7 / 58.8 / 71.5
Jan-03 / 51.6 / 53.0 / 49.3 / 50.7 / 51.2 / 54.7 / 45.1 / 58.8 / 48.5 / 59.9
Feb-03 / 53.0 / 55.1 / 53.8 / 51.3 / 54.0 / 51.3 / 51.2 / 54.2 / 50.5 / 60.4
Mar-03 / 52.7 / 52.4 / 51.7 / 54.5 / 51.7 / 51.4 / 48.1 / 55.2 / 63.1 / 48.0
Apr-03 / 49.3 / 48.0 / 49.1 / 50.7 / 50.0 / 48.7 / 48.7 / 49.7 / 53.5 / 43.9
May-03 / 49.6 / 49.8 / 48.8 / 50.3 / 50.3 / 49.0 / 47.9 / 50.1 / 53.4 / 51.8
Jun-03 / 53.2 / 51.4 / 52.6 / 53.7 / 54.6 / 55.2 / 50.2 / 52.3 / 56.4 / 61.7
Jul-03 / 51.6 / 49.2 / 51.5 / 52.3 / 54.9 / 52.1 / 51.5 / 51.5 / 49.5 / 55.0
Aug-03 / 51.9 / 48.9 / 50.8 / 56.1 / 51.6 / 50.3 / 52.2 / 48.6 / 60.2 / 53.4
Sep-03 / 59.6 / 63.0 / 53.5 / 61.8 / 57.5 / 58.7 / 62.1 / 57.0 / 65.2 / 52.1
Oct-03 / 64.6 / 71.1 / 54.3 / 70.5 / 56.1 / 61.3 / 64.2 / 64.2 / 75.0 / 59.7
Nov-03 / 64.4 / 66.9 / 61.2 / 69.1 / 51.1 / 63.9 / 61.3 / 63.2 / 69.1 / 73.4
Dec-03 / 54.0 / 54.0 / 49.2 / 57.3 / 48.2 / 57.3 / 51.1 / 48.7 / 65.3 / 54.5
Jan-04 / 51.4 / 51.4 / 47.3 / 54.1 / 50.2 / 52.3 / 50.0 / 51.0 / 54.9 / 48.7
Feb-04 / 55.2 / 56.8 / 47.7 / 59.1 / 52.7 / 56.6 / 54.1 / 58.1 / 57.1 / 47.1
Mar-04 / 58.9 / 61.2 / 51.6 / 64.3 / 50.9 / 59.6 / 58.3 / 60.0 / 64.6 / 49.1
Apr-04 / 54.8 / 54.7 / 50.2 / 59.6 / 48.4 / 55.8 / 53.7 / 54.4 / 59.8 / 49.6
May-04 / 54.1 / 55.6 / 50.4 / 58.2 / 48.4 / 55.8 / 55.7 / 52.0 / 57.3 / 51.3
Jun-04 / 62.2 / 63.6 / 56.0 / 67.7 / 55.8 / 61.4 / 63.6 / 60.8 / 62.4 / 56.1
Jul-04 / 57.5 / 59.3 / 52.1 / 61.6 / 55.8 / 54.5 / 60.6 / 55.2 / 60.9 / 45.8
Aug-04 / 58.8 / 59.8 / 50.2 / 63.6 / 56.3 / 60.7 / 61.1 / 55.9 / 59.6 / 57.5
Sep-04 / 56.8 / 59.1 / 53.0 / 58.6 / 56.1 / 55.1 / 58.5 / 54.3 / 54.9 / 62.3
Oct-04 / 56.7 / 59.1 / 51.8 / 60.1 / 53.9 / 54.5 / 56.8 / 57.7 / 56.0 / 54.8
Nov-04 / 65.9 / 69.5 / 58.2 / 69.8 / 59.3 / 66.9 / 68.0 / 62.2 / 61.0 / 67.9
Dec-04 / 58.1 / 61.3 / 54.3 / 61.6 / 50.9 / 55.5 / 58.8 / 56.8 / 56.5 / 58.2
Jan-05 / 52.6 / 49.8 / 52.4 / 56.2 / 51.5 / 50.9 / 53.8 / 51.2 / 49.4 / 54.9
Feb-05 / 54.4 / 56.5 / 50.6 / 56.9 / 48.6 / 54.7 / 53.8 / 51.0 / 63.1 / 51.0
Mar-05 / 51.5 / 53.1 / 49.0 / 51.9 / 50.2 / 52.3 / 52.6 / 47.8 / 50.6 / 54.3
Apr-05 / 47.9 / 46.1 / 50.7 / 47.9 / 48.1 / 47.2 / 46.6 / 45.4 / 53.2 / 51.3
May-05 / 49.3 / 49.7 / 47.2 / 50.7 / 48.5 / 49.2 / 49.4 / 50.1 / 48.9 / 46.8
Jun-05 / 52.2 / 51.5 / 51.9 / 50.9 / 55.8 / 53.9 / 50.5 / 53.0 / 54.4 / 54.7
Jul-05 / 48.2 / 45.6 / 48.8 / 48.6 / 50.2 / 49.4 / 44.8 / 50.6 / 54.6 / 50.7
Aug-05 / 53.1 / 53.8 / 50.5 / 53.4 / 52.3 / 55.4 / 54.0 / 51.3 / 47.6 / 60.9
Sep-05 / 52.3 / 53.9 / 48.8 / 53.5 / 52.3 / 51.7 / 52.1 / 53.1 / 46.7 / 59.8
Oct-05 / 49.6 / 49.0 / 47.6 / 50.5 / 51.5 / 49.8 / 48.4 / 48.8 / 52.7 / 54.9
Nov-05 / 52.3 / 53.9 / 51.3 / 52.4 / 53.7 / 50.0 / 50.7 / 57.7 / 54.3 / 46.5
Dec-05 / 47.6 / 46.2 / 46.2 / 48.1 / 50.8 / 48.3 / 47.3 / 45.1 / 54.6 / 44.5
Jan-06 / 44.1 / 42.5 / 43.5 / 45.7 / 45.9 / 43.3 / 42.3 / 44.8 / 49.4 / 42.8
Feb-06 / 50.1 / 52.1 / 46.4 / 51.4 / 47.1 / 50.7 / 46.8 / 49.1 / 59.4 / 48.9
Mar-06 / 53.4 / 54.5 / 50.8 / 55.7 / 47.6 / 54.3 / 53.8 / 50.8 / 54.2 / 55.8
Apr-06 / 48.6 / 45.7 / 51.1 / 48.9 / 48.9 / 49.6 / 46.9 / 50.7 / 44.0 / 56.3
May-06 / 55.4 / 57.0 / 51.5 / 58.6 / 52.6 / 53.3 / 55.1 / 52.5 / 59.1 / 58.5

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