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New Zealand: business confidence falls in December

[See full release with chart: NBNZ_bus_confidence_Dec.pdf]

New Zealand: business confidence falls in December

The NBNZ business confidence survey fell in December, with the headline index dropping to -24.9% (net respondents expecting conditions to deteriorate over the coming year) from -19.6% previously. Business confidence appears to be suffering under the still-elevated NZD, growing concerns over the outlook for global growth, and surging oil prices. On the upside, the index of firms’ own activity expectations rebounded to 18.2% from 15.7%. Still, the December survey confirms the NZ economy is cooling. JPMorgan forecasts GDP growth of 0.5%q/q in 3Q, down from 0.7% in 2Q. Third quarter GDP data is scheduled for release on Friday.

Over the next 12 months:

* A net 24.9% of firms expected the economy will worsen, compared to only 19.6% previously.
* A net 18.2% of firms believe business activity will rise, up from 15.7%.
* A net 17.6% of firms believe exports will rise, compared to 25.5% previously.
* A net 8.8% of firms see investment increasing, down from 14.5%.
* A net 7.0% of firms still believe livestock will increase.
* A net 14.8% of firms see capacity utilization picking up, more than the 9.5% in November.
* A net 0.0% of firms believe residential construction is worsening, up from -18.2% previously.
* A net 22.2% of firms believe commercial construction will increase, compared to 13.0% previously.


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