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BNZ Monthly Confidence Survey Results May 3 08

BNZ Monthly Confidence Survey Results

The BNZ monthly survey of Weekly Overview readers has revealed a small decline in pessimism for the second month in a row. A net 49% of respondents expect the economy to get worse over the coming year compared with 55% early in April and 62% in March. The survey still shows strong concerns about cost increases, staff availability, and slow debtors.

In the real estate market there is little evidence yet that buyers are moving to snap up bargains. Most have stood back from the market and are waiting for vendors to cut prices. But there appear to be a growing number of vendors taking their properties off the market and renting them out to take advantage of still strong tenant demand – and an ability to extract firm rental increases.

Comments about specific sectors can be summarised as follows.

Mixed messages, still some spending occurring.

Better now the drought has ended though the effects will linger. Dairy good, sheep and beef poor. Rural service providers generally good.

Car Sales
Very weak especially for used cars with discounting of new car prices.

Commercial Real Estate
Yields rising but investors still present. Office market firm, retail weak. Second tier market easing the most.

Easing off now. Worries about what might lie ahead.

Still quite firm.

Weak but with debt restructuring opportunities and high yields on offer to those with private capital.

Forestry/ Sawmilling
Bad all around with high cost increases, weakish offshore demand, and slimming down ahead of an expected fall in domestic construction.

Information Technology
Steadily weakening in recent months though still a few bright spots such as dairy technology.

Obvious weakness but with rising costs and staff shortages.

Signs of weakness against a more competitive US market. Strategies to take market share or develop niches coming into play.

Agriculture related strong, costs rising strongly with driver shortages.


Attachment: Results_May3.pdf

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