Rabobank Australia and New Zealand Agribusiness Review Oct

Agribusiness Review
October 2012

Please see attached Rabobank’s latest Agribusiness Review for Australia and New Zealand.

Prepared by our Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory division (FAR), the report provides monthly commentary on New Zealand and Australian agricultural conditions.

Key highlights:

• A warm end to spring is on the cards for most of Australia according to the Bureau of Meteorology. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean will maintain values around typical El Niño thresholds for the remainder of 2012.
• The US Federal Reserve announced the third stage of its quantitative easing program to help boost investment and spending in the economy. On a negative note, the World Trade Organisation downgraded its forecasts for growth in global trade in 2012 and 2013 by over one percentage point in response to slowing global economic activity.

• The New Zealand dollar has held firm over the course of the past month following the announcement of further liquidity measures in key global economies. The Australian dollar found some relief on the news of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision and softer external trade numbers and is currently trading around the USD1.025 level.

• Wheat, corn and soybean prices fell by 10-15% throughout September to levels which are unlikely to see sufficient demand rationing. Across the grains and oilseeds complex, global prices will be well supported through Q4 2012 by the need to ration demand due to low global stocks.

• Over the course of September, the price of domestic US 90CL fresh beef has declined USD 15c/lb to USD 201c/lb. Turning to the local market, the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) finished September at AUD 360c/kg, down from AUD 376c/kg in August. Weaker market prices were a reflection of sluggish restocker and feeder demand due to ongoing dry weather.

• Through September international dairy commodity prices gained strength in US dollar terms for the second consecutive month. Butter was up 14%, WMP up 16% and SMP 21%; cheese saw a modest gain of 6%. Slower production growth from key export supply regions mounting with the EU and the US both falling into negative year-on-year comparables in July and August, respectively, for the first time since early 2010.

• An increase in trading activity is expected to put some upward pressure on global fertiliser prices (in US dollar terms) in the near term. Attention is fixed on the approaching South American and India planting programs; while the low export tax windows (for phosphate and urea) in China will close shortly, reducing export availability.

To view the full report, please follow this link:
Australia and New Zealand Agribusiness Review

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