Video | Agriculture | Confidence | Economy | Energy | Employment | Finance | Media | Property | RBNZ | Science | SOEs | Tax | Technology | Telecoms | Tourism | Transport | Search

 


Tony Alexander's Weekly Overview

Busy. A Summary


This week I have been busy with the annual Japan New Zealand Business Council conference in Auckland plus compiling the monthly BNZ Confidence Survey and getting ready to release the results of the monthly BNZ-REINZ Residential Market Survey tomorrow. So I’ll keep this week’s Overview to the essentials – those being…

• Nothing has come along to change my view that the NZD will remain an elevated currency for a number of years.

• NZ growth will be very well underpinned for the next few years by a construction boom emanating from many sources and Asian growth assisting exports.

• The Reserve Bank’s next monetary policy change will be a tightening in (current best guess) a year’s time but before then I would keep an eye out for an attractive long term fixed rate and lock in a goodly portion of my mortgage.

• House prices will rise, especially in Auckland, because of a shortage of stock (same story there for many years).

• Farmland prices will also rise and the dairy sector continue to expand due to investors seeking exposure to the sector on the back of long term product demand out of Asia.

• The NZ labour market will tighten up rapidly from mid-2013 causing problems for firms without developed access to foreign and ex-pat people.

• The net migration flow for NZ will turn positive in a few months and settle firmly into positive territory for many years on the back of three long term trends of the cycle with Australia turning, UK and European people escaping an expected extended period of woe over there, and rising Asian middle class size boosting numbers shifting here – and on top of that there is the boost from builders coming in to rebuild Christchurch.

• New Zealand’s income per capita growth is constrained not by rules and institutions but our Kiwi-centric couture and poor connectivity with foreign scientists, managers, capitalists, policy-makers, and entrepreneurs.


Click here to read the full Weekly Overview

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines

 

Half Full: Dairy Payouts Steady, Cash Will Be Tight

Industry body DairyNZ is advising farmers to focus on strong cashflow management as they look ahead to the 2015-16 season following Fonterra's half-year results announcement today. More>>

ALSO:

First Union: Cotton On Plans To Use “Tea Break” Law

“The Prime Minister reassured New Zealanders that ‘post the passing of this law, will you all of a sudden find thousands of workers who are denied having a tea break? The answer is absolutely not’... Cotton On is proposing to remove tea and meal breaks for workers in its safety sensitive distribution centre. How long before other major chains try and follow suit?” More>>

ALSO:

Scoop Business: NZ-Korea FTA Signed Amid Spying, Lost Sovereignty Claims

A long-awaited free trade agreement between New Zealand and South Korea has been signed in Seoul by Prime Minister John Key and the Korean president, Park Geun-hye. More>>

ALSO:

PM Visit: NZ And Viet Nam Agree Ambitious Trade Target

New Zealand and Viet Nam have agreed an ambitious target of doubling two-way goods and service trade to around $2.2 billion by 2020, Prime Minister John Key has announced. More>>

ALSO:

Scoop Business: NZ Economy Grows 0.8% In Fourth Quarter

The New Zealand economy expanded in the fourth quarter as tourists drove growth in retailing and accommodation, and property sales increased demand for real estate services. More>>

ALSO:

Scoop Business: RBNZ’s Wheeler Keeps OCR On Hold, No Rate Hikes Ahead

The Reserve Bank has removed the prospect of future interest rate hikes from its forecast horizon as a strong kiwi dollar and cheap oil hold down inflation, and the central bank ponders whether to lower its assessment of where “neutral” interest rates should be. The kiwi dollar gained. More>>

ALSO:

Get More From Scoop

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Business
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news