Video | Agriculture | Confidence | Economy | Energy | Employment | Finance | Media | Property | RBNZ | Science | SOEs | Tax | Technology | Telecoms | Tourism | Transport | Search

 


Forecasts predict solid growth but structural shift


Media release

20 November 2012

Forecasts predict solid growth but structural shift in tourism

Tourism is set to recover from its current slowdown due to the continuing strength of Australia and a growing Chinese market, new forecasts released by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment predict.

New Zealand’s tourism sector outlook: Forecasts for 2012-2018 predicts international visitor spending will grow nine percent by December 2018, recovering from a sharp slowdown brought on by the global financial crisis. Visitor numbers are expected to rise by 28 percent in the same period.

Acting General Manager Adrienne Meikle says the forecasts point to a significant structural shift in New Zealand’s tourism industry.

“Traditional markets like the United Kingdom and United States will continue to decline in the absence of any active market intervention, but this will be off-set by strong growth from China and Australia.

“New Zealand will face continuing challenges as a destination for traditional markets, due to the global financial crisis and emergence of low-cost European airlines. The forecasts provide encouragement for New Zealand’s tourism industry to do more to attract and cater for visitors from our Asia-Pacific neighbours.”

The forecasts predict the average spend per day will remain steady, but the length of stay will trend downwards due to shorter trips from Australian and Asian visitors.

Tourism Industry Association Chief Executive Martin Snedden says the new forecasts show where efforts need to be made to underpin growth predictions or to lift market performance. There are a number of initiatives underway or beginning shortly which will significantly influence visitor numbers and spend over the next six years.

“Clearly China will be a big growth market but there is no room for complacency. We need to ensure that we keep improving the quality of the visitor experience to secure greater spend from this important sector.

“The current China Market Review will build on the foundations a range of New Zealand businesses and Tourism New Zealand are laying in China at present,” he says.

“In medium-risk markets such as Japan and the USA, there is optimism that positive change is already underway, evidenced by Air New Zealand’s recent decisions to increase its capacity out of both countries. The UK and Europe remain challenging but these markets remain important for New Zealand.

“A number of New Zealand tourism operators are working hard to at least retain current levels of support from these markets. It was good to see our country being voted as favourite destination by UK Daily Telegraph readers last week. We expect The Hobbit will impact positively on results from a number of our key markets such as the USA, Japan, the UK and Europe. Emerging niche tourism activities, such as cycling, hiking and golf, are likely to be part of the solution. “

“The overarching message that can be taken from these forecasts is that if the industry, with Tourism New Zealand, can continue to adapt effectively within this fast-changing environment, and if we can keep improving the quality of the visitor experience, then tourism will continue to be a strong contributor to New Zealand’s economy.”

Ms Meikle says the forecasts provide a starting point for industry discussions about what might happen within New Zealand’s inbound visitor market over the next six years.

“The Ministry’s job in this instance is to make long-term forecasts based on good econometric practice. The industry’s job is use these forecasts to determine what needs to be done to underpin growth predictions and to lift market performance in regions where declines are predicted.”

New Zealand’s tourism sector outlook was produced for the Ministry by NZIER.

Read the tourism forecasts report.

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines

 

BusinessDesk: APN's NZME Sees Future In Paywalls, Growth In Digital Sales

APN News & Media has touted a single newsroom concept for its NZME unit in New Zealand, similar to what Germany's Die Welt uses, saying an 'integrated sales proposition' is helping it win market share, including ... More>>

Labour Party: Global Milk Prices Now Lowest In 6 Years

The latest fall in the global dairy price has brought it to the lowest level in six years and shows there must be meaningful action in tomorrow’s Budget to diversify the economy, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “Dairy prices ... More>>

BusinessDesk: NZ Inflation Expectations Creep Higher In June Survey

May 19 (BusinessDesk) - New Zealand businesses lifted their expectations for inflation over the next two years, sapping any immediate pressure on the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates, and prompting the kiwi dollar to jump higher. More>>

BusinessDesk: Lower Fuel Costs Drive Down NZ Producer Input, Output Prices

May 19 - Producer input and output prices fell in the first quarter, mainly reflecting lower fuel costs and weakness in prices of meat and dairy products. More>>

Media: Fairfax Media NZ Announces Senior Editorial Team

Fairfax Media New Zealand has today confirmed its new editorial leadership team, as part of a transformation of its newsrooms aimed at enhancing local and national journalism across digital and print. More>>

Science: Flavonoids Reduce Cold And Cough Risk

Flavonoids reduce cold and cough risk Research from the University of Auckland shows eating flavonoids – found in green tea, apples, blueberries, cocoa, red wine and onions – can significantly reduce the risk of catching colds and coughs. The research, ... More>>


BusinessDesk: RBNZ House Alert Speech The Catalyst For Government Action

Prime Minister John Key all but conceded that pressure from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand for concerted action on rampant Auckland house prices was one of the main catalysts for the government's weekend announcements about tightly ... More>>

BusinessDesk: How To Fall Foul Of The New Housing Tax Rules: Tips From IRD

Just because you rented out your investment property doesn't absolve you from paying tax, says the Inland Revenue Department in a summary of commonly made mistakes by non-professional property investors when it comes to their tax liability.More>>

Legal: Superdiversity Law, Policy And Business Stocktake Announced

Mai Chen, Managing Partner at Chen Palmer New Zealand Public and Employment Law Specialists and Adjunct Professor of Law at the University of Auckland, today announced the establishment ... More>>

Housing: More House Price Gains Expected

House price expectations remain high, with a net 56% of respondents expecting house prices will increase. Fears of higher interest rates are fading, consistent with the RBNZ’s signals this year. Affordability and a lack of houses for ... More>>

TDDA: State-Of-The-Art Drug Testing Laboratory To Open In Auckland

World leading drug testing agencies, The Drug Detection Agency (TDDA) and Omega Laboratories, open New Zealand laboratory More>>

Network: Bigpipe Launches Ultra-Fast Broadband Into Wellington

Bigpipe Launches Ultra-Fast Broadband into Wellington Naked broadband provider Bigpipe has extended its national reach, announcing today, the launch of its unlimited UFB offering into Wellington. The Spark Venture business is giving Wellingtonians the ... More>>

Get More From Scoop

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Business
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news