Video | Agriculture | Confidence | Economy | Energy | Employment | Finance | Media | Property | RBNZ | Science | SOEs | Tax | Technology | Telecoms | Tourism | Transport | Search

 


NZ official jobless rate overstates labour market woes: RBNZ

NZ official unemployment rate overstates labour market woes, RBNZ says

New Zealand's unemployment rate of 7.3 percent overstates the weakness of the country's labour market, which has been tapering off through the latter half of this year, the Reserve Bank says.

The bank's latest forecast is more downbeat about the level of unemployment over the next two years, but isn't convinced joblessness is at a 13-year high as shown in Statistics New Zealand's household labour force survey - the official barometer.

The HLFS figures were in contrast to those in the Quarterly Employment Survey, falling numbers of unemployment beneficiaries, rising wage inflation and reports that employers are still finding it hard to attract staff.

"Looking at a broad range of measures, momentum in the labour market has weakened somewhat over the end of 2012," the bank said in commentary included in today's three monthly Monetary Policy Statement. "We believe this deterioration is less severe than the HLFS would suggest."

The central bank expects unemployment of 7.1 percent in the March 2013 year, falling to 5.9 percent in 2014 and 4.9 percent in 2015, according to forecasts in the MPS. That's more pessimistic than the 6.4 percent, 5.3 percent and 4.9 percent forecasts in September.

A rising unemployment rate has surprised economists in the past three quarters, with the spike in September attracting scepticism while also pointing to a lull in what seemed a more strongly recovering economy.

Jobs growth in recent years has largely been underpinned by increasing numbers of part-time staff at the expense of full-timers, though the Canterbury rebuild is seen as a likely candidate to mop up spare capacity in the labour market.

"The continued high unemployment rate of the past three years highlights the risk that significant spare capacity remains in the wider economy," the bank said. "Even if the unemployment rate dropped back below 7 percent in the December quarter, the HLFS would still suggest much more economic slack than other capacity indicators."

(BusinessDesk)

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines

 

ICT Innovation: Six NZ Finalists In World Summit Awards

The awards are a global showcase of 40 projects, across eight categories, with a special emphasis on those which show the benefits of information and communication technology for the development of communities. New Zealand has finalists in six of the eight categories. More>>

ALSO:

Final Frontier: Rocket Lab And NASA Sign Commercial Space Launch Agreement

Rocket Lab has signed a Commercial Space Launch Act Agreement with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The agreement enables Rocket Lab to use NASA resources - including personnel, facilities and equipment - for launch and reentry efforts. More>>

ALSO:

Scoop Business: Wheeler Downplays Scope For ‘Large’ Rates Fall

Reserve Bank governor Graeme Wheeler says some market commentators are predicting further declines in interest rates that would only make sense for an economy in recession, although some easing is likely to be needed to maintain New Zealand’s economic growth. More>>

ALSO:

Ruataniwha Dam: Consent Conditions Could Mean Reduced Intensity

Legal advice sought by the Hawke’s Bay Regional Council on the Ruataniwha Dam consent conditions has confirmed that farmers who sign up to take water from the dam could be required to reduce the intensity of their farming operation to meet the catchment’s strict nitrogen limit. More>>

Health And Safety: Bill Now Sees Rules Relaxed For Small Businesses

Health and safety law reform sparked by the Pike River coalmine disaster has been reported back from the industrial relations select committee with weakened requirements on small businesses to appoint health and safety representatives and committees. More>>

ALSO:

Bearing Fruit: Annual Fruit Exports Hit $2 Billion For First Time

The value of fruit exported rose 20 percent (up $330 million) for the June 2015 year when compared with the year ended June 2014. Both higher prices and a greater quantity of exports (up 9.0 percent) contributed to the overall rise. More>>

ALSO:

Get More From Scoop

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Business
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news