Video | Agriculture | Confidence | Economy | Energy | Employment | Finance | Media | Property | RBNZ | Science | SOEs | Tax | Technology | Telecoms | Tourism | Transport | Search

 


NZ official jobless rate overstates labour market woes: RBNZ

NZ official unemployment rate overstates labour market woes, RBNZ says

New Zealand's unemployment rate of 7.3 percent overstates the weakness of the country's labour market, which has been tapering off through the latter half of this year, the Reserve Bank says.

The bank's latest forecast is more downbeat about the level of unemployment over the next two years, but isn't convinced joblessness is at a 13-year high as shown in Statistics New Zealand's household labour force survey - the official barometer.

The HLFS figures were in contrast to those in the Quarterly Employment Survey, falling numbers of unemployment beneficiaries, rising wage inflation and reports that employers are still finding it hard to attract staff.

"Looking at a broad range of measures, momentum in the labour market has weakened somewhat over the end of 2012," the bank said in commentary included in today's three monthly Monetary Policy Statement. "We believe this deterioration is less severe than the HLFS would suggest."

The central bank expects unemployment of 7.1 percent in the March 2013 year, falling to 5.9 percent in 2014 and 4.9 percent in 2015, according to forecasts in the MPS. That's more pessimistic than the 6.4 percent, 5.3 percent and 4.9 percent forecasts in September.

A rising unemployment rate has surprised economists in the past three quarters, with the spike in September attracting scepticism while also pointing to a lull in what seemed a more strongly recovering economy.

Jobs growth in recent years has largely been underpinned by increasing numbers of part-time staff at the expense of full-timers, though the Canterbury rebuild is seen as a likely candidate to mop up spare capacity in the labour market.

"The continued high unemployment rate of the past three years highlights the risk that significant spare capacity remains in the wider economy," the bank said. "Even if the unemployment rate dropped back below 7 percent in the December quarter, the HLFS would still suggest much more economic slack than other capacity indicators."

(BusinessDesk)

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines

 

OceanaGold: Man Killed In Waihi Mine Accident

A 29-year-old man had died following a work place accident at OceanaGold mine, Waihi last night. The man was killed after the front end loader he was in rolled down a slope. The accident happened at approximately 6.30pm on Thursday night. More>>

ALSO:

Constructing Consent: Annual Housing Consents Highest In Over A Decade

More than 29,000 new homes gained building consent in the year to June 2016, up 16 percent from the previous June year, Statistics New Zealand said today. More>>

ALSO:

War Against Weevil For Future Peas: “No Peas, No Weevil” Ban Now In Place In Wairarapa

The Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) has today placed a ban on growing peas within a specified area and placed controls on moving pea material (seed and untreated pea straw) within, in and out of this area for the next 2 years. More>>

ALSO:

Wood Producers: Crisis In New Zealand Log Supply

New Zealand wood processing leaders held a hui with senior government officials and political leaders in Whangarei yesterday to assess the acute log supply shortage to local mills in Northland. More>>

Consents And Taxes: Trustpower 'Very Disappointed' With Judgement

Trustpower is "very disappointed" with a Supreme Court ruling dismissing its bid to claim tax deductions on $17.7 million of project costs in a case closely watched by large-scale infrastructure developers. More>>

ALSO:

Fruitful Endeavours: Kiwifruit Exports Reach Record Levels

In June 2016, kiwifruit exports rose $105 million (47 percent) from June 2015 to reach $331 million, Statistics New Zealand said today. Overall, goods exports rose $109 million (2.6 percent) in June 2016 (to $4.3 billion). More>>

ALSO:

Get More From Scoop

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Business
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news