Video | Agriculture | Confidence | Economy | Energy | Employment | Finance | Media | Property | RBNZ | Science | SOEs | Tax | Technology | Telecoms | Tourism | Transport | Search

 


NZ official jobless rate overstates labour market woes: RBNZ

NZ official unemployment rate overstates labour market woes, RBNZ says

New Zealand's unemployment rate of 7.3 percent overstates the weakness of the country's labour market, which has been tapering off through the latter half of this year, the Reserve Bank says.

The bank's latest forecast is more downbeat about the level of unemployment over the next two years, but isn't convinced joblessness is at a 13-year high as shown in Statistics New Zealand's household labour force survey - the official barometer.

The HLFS figures were in contrast to those in the Quarterly Employment Survey, falling numbers of unemployment beneficiaries, rising wage inflation and reports that employers are still finding it hard to attract staff.

"Looking at a broad range of measures, momentum in the labour market has weakened somewhat over the end of 2012," the bank said in commentary included in today's three monthly Monetary Policy Statement. "We believe this deterioration is less severe than the HLFS would suggest."

The central bank expects unemployment of 7.1 percent in the March 2013 year, falling to 5.9 percent in 2014 and 4.9 percent in 2015, according to forecasts in the MPS. That's more pessimistic than the 6.4 percent, 5.3 percent and 4.9 percent forecasts in September.

A rising unemployment rate has surprised economists in the past three quarters, with the spike in September attracting scepticism while also pointing to a lull in what seemed a more strongly recovering economy.

Jobs growth in recent years has largely been underpinned by increasing numbers of part-time staff at the expense of full-timers, though the Canterbury rebuild is seen as a likely candidate to mop up spare capacity in the labour market.

"The continued high unemployment rate of the past three years highlights the risk that significant spare capacity remains in the wider economy," the bank said. "Even if the unemployment rate dropped back below 7 percent in the December quarter, the HLFS would still suggest much more economic slack than other capacity indicators."

(BusinessDesk)

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines

 

Half Empty: Fonterra's 2017 Opening Forecast Below Expectations

Fonterra Cooperative Group raised its forecast farmgate milk payout for next season by less than expected as the world's largest dairy exporter predicts lower prices will crimp production and supply will pick up. The New Zealand dollar fell. More>>

ALSO:

Pest Control: Mouse Blitz Team Leaves For Antipodes

The Million Dollar Mouse project to rid Antipodes Island of mice is underway with the departure of a rodent eradication team to the remote nature reserve and World Heritage Area. More>>

Gongs Got: Canon Media Awards & NZ Radio Awards Happen

Radio NZ: RNZ website The Wireless, which is co-funded by NZ On Air, was named best website, while Toby Manhire and Toby Morris won the best opinion general writing section for their weekly column on rnz.co.nz and Tess McClure won the best junior feature writer section. More>>

ALSO:

Pre-Budget: Debt Focus Risks Losing Opportunity To Stoke Economy

The Treasury is likely to upgrade its forecasts for economic growth in Budget 2016 next week but Finance Minister Bill English has already signalled that more of his focus is on debt repayment than on fiscal stimulus or tax cuts... More>>

ALSO:

Fulton Hogan's Heroes: Managing Director Nick Miller Resigns

Fulton Hogan managing director Nick Miller will leave the privately owned construction company after seven years in charge. The Dunedin-based company has kicked off a search for a replacement, and Miller will stay on at the helm until March next year, or until a successor has been appointed and a transition period completed. More>>

ALSO:

Gordon Campbell: On Electricity, Executions, And Bob Dylan

The Electricity Authority has unveiled the final version of its pricing plan for electricity transmission. This will change the way transmission prices (which comprise about 10% of the average power bill) are computed, and will add hundreds of dollars a year to power bills for many ordinary consumers. More>>

ALSO:

Half Empty: Fonterra NZ, Australia Milk Collection Drops In Season

Fonterra Cooperative Group says milk collection is down in New Zealand and Australia, its two largest markets, in the first 11 months of the season during a period of weak dairy prices. More>>

ALSO:

Get More From Scoop

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Business
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news