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AUD nestles back below 1.05 ahead of US Payrolls

15.39 AEDT, Friday 7 December 2012

AUD nestles back below 1.05 ahead of US Payrolls

By Tim Waterer (Senior Trader, CMC Markets)

US Non-Farm Payrolls is normally the flagship economic release when it comes to ascertaining US economic health, however the report may not hold as much weight as usual given that a low result will likely be attributed to Hurricane Sandy. As such, if we do see a number on the low side of the forecast, the downward reaction by risk assets may be muted.

Instead, trading conditions to end the week could be reliant on how well investors have digested the Eurozone growth downgrades now that we have had an extra day for it to sink in. Traders have been so consumed by the fiscal cliff scenario in recent weeks that the Eurozone debt saga has become almost an afterthought for the time being. However the EU downgrades may adjust the focal point of market attention.

The Australian Dollar has nestled back below 1.05 where it has spent much of the week, after having taken a glance above 1.05. Trade Balance data today showed a widening of the deficit however the result was broadly in line with expectations, and as a result there was little reaction from the AUD which hovered near 1.0480 much of the day. The currency remained quite well supported throughout Asian trading hours however there was a reluctance for the AUD to head north of 1.05 ahead of an important night of data abroad.

This week the AUD has added the string of ‘resilience’ to its bow given its ability to maintain strong buying interest under differing market conditions. The AUD has taken on something of a ‘dual-threat’ appearance given that it is a popular pick in the FX market when risk appetite rises while it is also more than holding its own when risk aversion mounts with the currency still garnering the attention of central banks around the globe. Despite the RBA interest rate cut this week, high yield relative to other currencies is serving the AUD very well indeed.

The Australian sharemarket posted quite a lively performance to end the week, with key performances from the mining and banking stocks serving as a bastion for the ASX200’s advance. The Australian market seemed to have momentum on its side this week and this was further evidenced today in light of there being little specific drivers for our market. It may be due to anticipation that we will have favourable outcomes from the US and European issues over the coming months and traders are perhaps beginning to price this upside potential into the local bourse.


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