Video | Agriculture | Confidence | Economy | Energy | Employment | Finance | Media | Property | RBNZ | Science | SOEs | Tax | Technology | Telecoms | Tourism | Transport | Search

 


Growing Momentum In Canterbury Activity

Media release
ASB Cantometer Index

EMBARGOED UNTIL 5AM WEDNESDAY 23 JANUARY 2013

ASB CANTOMETER INDEX SHOWS GROWING MOMENTUM IN CANTERBURY ACTIVITY

Construction activity continues to build, boosted by increase in non-residential consents.
Lifts in retail spending and consumer confidence suggest activity is broadening beyond construction.

According to the latest ASB Cantometer index, activity in the Canterbury region lifted significantly last month, increasing to 0.5 from 0.2, suggesting activity is now firmly above pre-quake levels. Much of the improvement stems from the consumer spending index, which has lifted to +0.3 from -0.8 based on data released over the past month.

ASB Chief Economist Nick Tuffley says, “The Christchurch Retail Trade Indicator revealed further recovery in retail spending over Q3, with the quarterly pace of Christchurch retail spending growth outpacing that of the rest of the country.”

Mr Tuffley says there are other positive indicators also, “In addition, there was a sharp improvement in Canterbury consumer confidence over Q4. The continued recovery in these areas suggests economic activity is starting to broaden beyond construction.”

Outlook

“We expect Canterbury reconstruction activity to continue to underpin the nationwide lift in residential construction over the coming year,” says Mr Tuffley. “However, the Q3 GDP figures released just before Christmas suggest there is less momentum in support industries (such as professional services) than previously thought.”

“In light of indications of less momentum in the wider economy and subdued inflation pressures we now expect the RBNZ will leave the OCR unchanged until March 2014,” concludes Mr Tuffley.

About the Cantometer

The Cantometer is designed to summarise activity in Canterbury. The study takes a range of publically available regional economic data, which is standardised and aggregated into a summary measure. The index has been rebased to zero in June 2010 (the end of the quarter immediately preceding the first earthquake) such that a positive number represents activity being above pre-earthquake levels.

Along with the aggregate Cantometer index, there are five sub categories: Construction, Housing, Employment, Consumer spending and Miscellaneous*.
These sub-indices will provide some insight into which sectors are driving the rebuild activity at a given point in time.

For most activity the data reference the level of activity. However, when incorporating wages and house prices into the index we believe levels are less informative. Instead the index uses prices relative to the rest of the country. An increase in relative prices is a signal for resources to be reallocated to the Canterbury region.

The historical Cantometer series represented on the charts is a simple average of the complete set of data for each month.

*The miscellaneous category includes electricity, car registrations, guest nights and permanent and long-term net migration. A common factor driving these areas will be population growth, and we expect all these indicators to increase as the rebuild gathers momentum.

ENDS

Embargoed_ASB_Cantometer_Index_23_January_2013.pdf

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines

 

Tourism: China Southern Airlines To Fly To Christchurch

China Southern Airlines, in partnership with Christchurch Airport and the South Island tourism industry, has announced today it will begin flying directly between Guangzhou, Mainland China and the South Island. More>>

ALSO:

Dodgy: Truck Shops Come Under Scrutiny

Mobile traders, or truck shops, target poorer communities, particularly in Auckland, with non-compliant contracts, steep prices and often lower-quality goods than can be bought at ordinary shops, a Commerce Commission investigation has found. More>>

ALSO:

Auckland Transport: Government, Council Agree On Funding Approach

The government and Auckland Council have reached a detente over transport funding, establishing a one-year, collaborative timetable for decisions on funding for the city's transport infrastructure growth in the next 30 years after the government refused to fund the $2 billion of short and medium-term plans outlined in Auckland's draft Unitary Plan. More>>

ALSO:

Bullish On China Shock: Slumping Equities, Commodities May Continue, But Not A GFC

The biggest selloff in stock markets in at least four years, slumping commodity prices and a surge in Wall Street's fear gauge don't mean the world economy is heading for another global financial crisis, fund managers say. More>>

ALSO:

Real Estate: Investors Driving Up Auckland Housing Risk - RBNZ

The growing presence of investors in Auckland's property market is increasing the risks, and is likely to both amplify the housing cycle and worsen the potential damage from a downturn both to the financial system and the broader economy, said Reserve Bank deputy governor Grant Spencer. More>>

ALSO:

Annual Record: Overseas Visitors Hit 3 Million Milestone

Visitor arrivals to New Zealand surpassed 3 million for the first time in the July 2015 year, Statistics New Zealand said today. The record-breaking 3,002,982 visitors this year was 7 percent higher than the July 2014 year. More>>

ALSO:

Get More From Scoop

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Business
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news