Video | Agriculture | Confidence | Economy | Energy | Employment | Finance | Media | Property | RBNZ | Science | SOEs | Tax | Technology | Telecoms | Tourism | Transport | Search

 


ASB Quarterly Economic Forecast February 2013

Media release

ASB Quarterly Economic Forecast February 2013


Year of the Snake promises to be a year of twists and turns as economic momentum builds

· New Zealand Dollar likely to remain stubbornly elevated.

· 2013 economic outlook to be shaped by the Canterbury rebuild.

· Growing possibility RBNZ may reach for its macro-prudential toolkit.

ASB’s latest Quarterly Economic Forecast reveals the RBNZ Governor faces a difficult dilemma this year: how to balance muted inflation pressures against the emerging housing market pressures and lift in credit demand.

ASB Chief Economist Nick Tuffley says, “We think it is likely the OCR won’t increase until the first quarter of 2014. But there is a growing possibility the RBNZ will reach for its macro-prudential toolkit to cool the housing market and credit growth in order to delay using OCR that long.”

Adding to the pressure is the New Zealand Dollar which is likely to remain stubbornly elevated, although Mr Tuffley observes the impact of the high NZD is spread unevenly across the trade-exposed sectors of the economy.

“Import-competing manufacturers have faced more widespread headwinds relative to the manufacturing export base, which gets some shelter from a large exposure to Australia.”

On reflection Mr Tuffley says 2012 was a year of modest NZ growth coupled with encouraging signs that Canterbury’s rebuild was getting underway.

These themes are likely to repeat in 2013, but by the end of the year ASB expects a better local economic performance and a bit more progress in getting on top of the developed world’s various debt woes.

Mr Tuffley says, “Global growth should be similar to last year at upwards of 3.3% – overall near the long-term average but with risks continuing to hover in the background.”

“NZ’s recovery was modest yet patchy over 2012, but we expect momentum to pick up over 2013. Earthquake rebuilding is gearing up in Canterbury along with other signs that the region’s economy is starting to rebound.”

“Rebuilding activity will be a key driver of higher overall NZ growth. The broader housing market is likely to continue strengthening, particularly in Auckland, further boosting house building. Greater building activity will filter through to the wider economy.”

ENDS

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines

 

Wine: 20% Of Marlborough Storage Tanks Damaged By Quake

An estimated 20 percent of wine storage tanks in the Marlborough region, the country’s largest wine producing area, have been damaged by the impact of the recent Kaikoura earthquake. More>>

ALSO:

ACC: Levy Recommendations For 2017 – 2019 Period

• For car owners, a 13% reduction in the average Motor Vehicle levy • For businesses, a 10% reduction in the average Work levy, and changes to workplace safety incentive products • For employees, due to an increase in claims volumes and costs, a 3% increase in the Earners’ levy. More>>

Women's Affairs: Government Accepts Recommendations On Pay Equity

The Government will update the Equal Pay Act and amend the Employment Relations Act to implement recommendations of the Joint Working Group on Pay Equity. More>>

ALSO:

Immigration: Increase In Seasonal Workers For RSE

The current cap will be increased by 1,000 from 9,500 to 10,500 RSE workers for the 2016-17 season. Mr Woodhouse says the horticulture and viticulture industry is New Zealand’s fourth largest export industry, producing almost $5 billion in exports. More>>

ALSO:

Hurunui: Crown Irrigation Invests Up To $3.4m In North Canterbury

Crown Irrigation Investments will invest up to $3.4m in the Hurunui Water Project, an irrigation scheme that will be capable of irrigating up to 21,000 hectares on the south side of the Hurunui River in North Canterbury. More>>

ALSO:

Not So Great:Butterfly Eradication Success

The invasive pest great white butterfly has been eradicated from New Zealand in a world-first achievement, Primary Industries Minister Nathan Guy and Conservation Minister Maggie Barry say. More>>

Gordon Campbell: On The Government’s Tax Cuts Fixation

Long before the earthquake hit, the dodginess of the government tax cuts programnme was evident in the language of its packaging. It is being touted as a “tax cuts and family care” package... More>>

ALSO:

Get More From Scoop

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Business
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news