Morningstar Equities Research - CEN-NZ, FXJ, DWS, MYR

Morningstar Equities Research - CEN-NZ, FXJ, DWS, MYR

Contact Energy Limited CEN-NZ| Strong first half expected
Morningstar Recommendation: Hold

Contact Energy is due to report its first half fiscal 2013 results on February 18. The firm recently released its operating statistics for December 2012 and the first half. The electricity division is projected to deliver 10.5% growth in earnings before interest and tax (EBITDA) to NZD 231 million for the first half driving overall EBITDA by 9.5% to NZD 252.7 million. The increase in electricity earnings is largely drive by lower cost as a result of a decline in wholesale electricity prices and lower generation cost, partly offset by a fall in spot electricity prices and lower output. We expect the LPG and meter businesses to perform in line with last year. Despite a strong first half, we maintain our full year EBITDA and NPAT of NZD 531 million (up 5%) and NZD 184 million (up 5%) respectively, as we expect growth to moderate in second half fiscal 2013. We also maintain our narrow moat rating on the stock reflecting the company’s significant nation wide market share its integrated business model and consolidated industry structure. Our fair value remains unchanged at NZD 5.50 per share.

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