Video | Agriculture | Confidence | Economy | Energy | Employment | Finance | Media | Property | RBNZ | Science | SOEs | Tax | Technology | Telecoms | Tourism | Transport | Search

 


NZ inflation seen tame enough to stay rate hikes until March

NZ inflation seen tame enough to keep interest rates unchanged until March

By Jonathan Underhill

Jan. 17 (BusinessDesk) – The Reserve Bank and market economists are near agreement that inflation remained tame in the fourth quarter, keeping intact expectations that the official cash rate doesn’t need to rise from a record low until March.

The consumers price index fell 0.1 percent in the final three months of 2013, for an annual rate of 1.5 percent, according to a Reuters survey of 11 economists. The Reserve Bank forecast a 0.2 percent decline in the quarter for an annual 1.4 percent in its December monetary policy statement. The data is due for release on Jan. 21.

Fourth-quarter inflation is typically weak because of a seasonal decline in fruit and vegetable prices. The latest quarter was also characterised by a decline in prices of petrol and diesel, while the trade-weighted index near a record high has ensured tradables inflation has been non-existent. That means the Reserve Bank’s focus is on strength in non-tradable inflation, especially from a resurgent housing market.

“Domestic inflation pressures are gradually re-emerging, but barring a substantial upside surprise in next week’s inflation figures, the Reserve Bank will have time to respond at a measured pace,” said Michael Gordon, senior economist at Westpac Banking Corp. “Our view is that the CPI figures alone are unlikely to be the catalyst for an early move.”

The December MPS forecasts annual inflation to stay below the central bank’s 1 percent-to-3 percent target band until the fourth quarter of 2015 and Westpac’s Gordon says he agrees that headline inflation will remain subdued over the coming year.

That leaves the economy in something of a sweet spot, with gross domestic product expected to grow 2.8 percent in the year ending March 31, picking up to a 3.1 percent pace in 2015, according to the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research’s consensus forecasts in December. Business confidence rose to a 20-year high last quarter, the NZIER’s quarterly survey of business opinion showed.

“Everything feels just about right,” said Shamubeel Eaqub, the NZIER’s principal economist. “We’ve got good growth in the economy, jobs are coming through and prices are not very high. But if it keeps accelerating then it will lead to price inflation and interest rate increases.”

The QSBO shows a slight decline in firms seeing rising costs, while those reporting an increase in selling prices rose to 10 percent from 8 percent and for the coming quarter held steady at 24 percent. The survey also indicates the economy has some headroom to grow without getting steamed.

Capacity utilisation slipped to 90.2 percent in the fourth quarter from 91 percent three months earlier, while those seeing capacity constraint climbed to 12.7 percent from 10.8 percent.

“Capacity utilisation has picked up but most of the pressures are in Canterbury,” Eaqub told BusinessDesk. “The rest of New Zealand is at historic averages. Any growth from here will soak up excess capacity and lead to higher prices down the track, typically in six to 12 months.”

The Reserve Bank next reviews interest rates on Jan. 30 and out of 17 economists surveyed by Reuters, only Citi sees a hike to the OCR this month. The consensus is for a quarter point move to 2.75 percent by the end of March and the same sized moves in the remaining three quarters of 2014.

(BusinessDesk)

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines

 

Scoop Business: Spark, Voda And Telstra To Lay New Trans-Tasman Cable

Spark New Zealand and Vodafone, New Zealand’s two dominant telecommunications providers, in partnership with Australian provider Telstra, will spend US$70 million building a trans-Tasman submarine cable to bolster broadband traffic between the neighbouring countries and the rest of the world. More>>

ALSO:

Statistics: Current Account Deficit Widens

New Zealand's annual current account deficit was $6.1 billion (2.6 percent of GDP) for the year ended September 2014. This compares with a deficit of $5.8 billion (2.5 percent of GDP) for the year ended June 2014. More>>

ALSO:

Still In The Red: NZ Govt Shunts Out Surplus To 2016

The New Zealand government has pushed out its targeted return to surplus for a year as falling dairy prices and a low inflation environment has kept a lid on its rising tax take, but is still dangling a possible tax cut in 2017, the next election year and promising to try and achieve the surplus pledge on which it campaigned for election in September. More>>

ALSO:

Job Insecurity: Time For Jobs That Count In The Meat Industry

“Meat Workers face it all”, says Graham Cooke, Meat Workers Union National Secretary. “Seasonal work, dangerous jobs, casual and zero hours contracts, and increasing pressure on workers to join non-union individual agreements. More>>

ALSO:

Scoop Business: ComCom Charges Hawkins’ Finance Companies Over Debt Recovery

The Commerce Commission has filed criminal proceedings against two finance companies run by former 1980s high-flyer Allan Hawkins over their debt recovery practices. More>>

ALSO:

Science Media Centre: The Big Science Stories Of 2014

It was a dramatic year for science, one that witnessed a severe outbreak of Ebola in West Africa and an historic mission to land a space probe on a comet. On the home front... headlines with animal testing for 'legal highs', 1080 use to tackle increased pest numbers and court action over genetically modified organisms among the most-covered stories. More>>

ALSO:

Get More From Scoop

 
 
Standards New Zealand

Standards New Zealand
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Business
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news