Video | Agriculture | Confidence | Economy | Energy | Employment | Finance | Media | Property | RBNZ | Science | SOEs | Tax | Technology | Telecoms | Tourism | Transport | Search

 


NZ Dollar Outlook: Kiwi set to fall on Ukraine tension, Fed

NZ Dollar Outlook: Kiwi set to move lower as Ukraine tension, Fed taper weigh

By Tina Morrison

March 17 (BusinessDesk) – The New Zealand dollar may decline from elevated levels this week as concerns about tensions in Ukraine and a likely pullback in stimulus by the Federal Reserve weigh on the currency.

The local dollar may trade between 83.40 US cents and 86.50 cents this week, according to a BusinessDesk survey of nine traders and strategists. Six predict the kiwi will decline this week, while one expects an increase and two see it largely unchanged. The kiwi recently traded at 85.36 US cents from 85.25 cents at 8am.

Investors are cautious, favouring the safe haven Japanese yen, after Crimean voters in a weekend poll chose to break with Ukraine and join Russia, prompting concern about retaliation from the West. Also weighing on the kiwi this week, the Federal Reserve is expected to continue to pull back its stimulus by US$10 billion a month, adding strength to the greenback.

“Recent elevated levels have left the kiwi somewhat extended and those two major factors will weigh on us this week,” said Stuart Ive, senior advisor at OMF. “That may find the kiwi struggling a little bit to gain any further ground against the US dollar.”

The Federal Reserve this week holds its first monetary policy meeting chaired by Janet Yellen and economists expect she will push to continue the policy of reducing stimulus. The decision is scheduled for release on Thursday morning New Zealand time.

Also in the US this week, data on industrial production and housing should bounce following poor weather, while February inflation likely stayed tame, UBS economist Robin Clements said in a note.

In New Zealand this week, fourth quarter data is released on the balance of payments on Wednesday and gross domestic product on Thursday.

GDP rose 0.9 percent in the final three months of 2013, based on a Reuters survey of 11 economists. The current account gap narrowed to $1.4 billion for an annual deficit of $7.4 billion, or 3.3 percent of GDP, a separate survey showed.

The data is unlikely to knock the New Zealand dollar off its perch, ANZ Bank said in a research note.

On Wednesday morning, the latest GlobalDairyTrade report is published, and prices may be under pressure from higher production.

On Friday, tourist arrival data for February is released at 10:45am, while the ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence survey for March will be released at 1pm and credit card spending for February will be published at 3pm.

In Australia, traders will be eyeing tomorrow’s release of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes from their meeting this month.

Little new information is expected from the minutes, while other Australian data on car sales, goods imports and skilled vacancies are second tier and unlikely to move markets, UBS’s Clements said.

Meantime in the UK this week, data will be released on unemployment and the UK budget while the minutes of the Bank of England’s last meeting are scheduled for publication.

(BusinessDesk)

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines

 

Sky City : Auckland Convention Centre Cost Jumps By A Fifth

SkyCity Entertainment Group, the casino and hotel operator, is in talks with the government on how to fund the increased cost of as much as $130 million to build an international convention centre in downtown Auckland, with further gambling concessions ruled out. The Auckland-based company has increased its estimate to build the centre to between $470 million and $530 million as the construction boom across the country drives up building costs and design changes add to the bill.
More>>

ALSO:

RMTU: Mediation Between Lyttelton Port And Union Fails

The Rail and Maritime Union (RMTU) has opted to continue its overtime ban indefinitely after mediation with the Lyttelton Port of Christchurch (LPC) failed to progress collective bargaining. More>>

Earlier:

Science Policy: Callaghan, NSC Funding Knocked In Submissions

Callaghan Innovation, which was last year allocated a budget of $566 million over four years to dish out research and development grants, and the National Science Challenges attracted criticism in submissions on the government’s draft national statement of science investment, with science funding largely seen as too fragmented. More>>

ALSO:

Scoop Business: Spark, Voda And Telstra To Lay New Trans-Tasman Cable

Spark New Zealand and Vodafone, New Zealand’s two dominant telecommunications providers, in partnership with Australian provider Telstra, will spend US$70 million building a trans-Tasman submarine cable to bolster broadband traffic between the neighbouring countries and the rest of the world. More>>

ALSO:

More:

Statistics: Current Account Deficit Widens

New Zealand's annual current account deficit was $6.1 billion (2.6 percent of GDP) for the year ended September 2014. This compares with a deficit of $5.8 billion (2.5 percent of GDP) for the year ended June 2014. More>>

ALSO:

Still In The Red: NZ Govt Shunts Out Surplus To 2016

The New Zealand government has pushed out its targeted return to surplus for a year as falling dairy prices and a low inflation environment has kept a lid on its rising tax take, but is still dangling a possible tax cut in 2017, the next election year and promising to try and achieve the surplus pledge on which it campaigned for election in September. More>>

ALSO:

Job Insecurity: Time For Jobs That Count In The Meat Industry

“Meat Workers face it all”, says Graham Cooke, Meat Workers Union National Secretary. “Seasonal work, dangerous jobs, casual and zero hours contracts, and increasing pressure on workers to join non-union individual agreements. More>>

ALSO:

Get More From Scoop

 
 
Standards New Zealand

Standards New Zealand
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Business
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news