Video | Agriculture | Confidence | Economy | Energy | Employment | Finance | Media | Property | RBNZ | Science | SOEs | Tax | Technology | Telecoms | Tourism | Transport | Search

 


BUDGET: NZ govt sees economic growth at 10-year high

BUDGET: NZ govt sees faster growth as strong terms of trade, more jobs drive consumer spending

By Paul McBeth

May 15 (BusinessDesk) - The government sees faster growth in the coming years as 40-year high terms of trade and an improving labour market drive increased consumer spending, and as the Canterbury rebuild looks like lasting longer than previously thought.

Gross domestic product is thought to have accelerated to 3 percent in the year ended March 31, 2014, before peaking at a decade-high 4 percent in 2015, up from the Treasury's December forecasts of 2.6 percent and 3.6 percent respectively, according to the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update. Growth then slows to 3 percent in 2016 and 2.1 percent in the following two years.

"This is the first budget in six years to manage a growing economy," Finance Minister Bill English said. "Our aim is to do what we can to extend steady economic growth which helps deliver more jobs and higher pay."

The Treasury's forecasts are more upbeat than the Reserve Bank's March projections by about half a percentage point, and sheet home rising household and business incomes to strong commodity prices which have underpinned 40-year high terms of trade, which are thought now to have peaked. In turn, that has supported higher than expected consumer spending and market investment.

The accelerating economy has been supported by decade-high inflows of net migration as fewer New Zealanders seek a better standard of living in Australia. As immigration from Asia grows, the Treasury sees net migration peaking at about 38,000 later in the year, before slowing to a long-term average inflow of 12,000 a year.

The flood of new migrants has been soaked up by the labour market, with government figures last week showing a participation rate at a record 69.3 percent in the March quarter and employment growth of 0.9 percent in the quarter.

The Treasury sees the unemployment rate falling to 5.4 percent in March 2015 from its current 6 percent rate, dropping to 4.4 percent by 2018, faster than the December forecasts. Nominal wages are forecast to rise at a faster pace of inflation over the four-year forecast horizon.

The Canterbury rebuild remains a major plank to the recovery, with reconstruction investment estimated to total about $40 billion, with half of that taking place before the middle of 2018. Of that, about $18 billion is expected to be on residential investment, $9 billion on commercial property, and $11 billion on infrastructure and social assets.

The Reserve Bank has tagged growing construction activity to cope with the Christchurch rebuild and meeting a housing shortage in Auckland as a potential inflationary pressure, and governor Graeme Wheeler embarked on tighter monetary policy in March, hiking the official cash rate twice to 3 percent since then.

The Treasury sees the consumers price index accelerating to an annual 1.8 percent in 2015, peaking at 2.5 percent the following year before slowing to 2.3 percent and 2 percent the following years. It also publishes housing inflation forecasts for the first time, anticipating a 7.3 percent increase in house prices in the year to June 2015.

An elevated New Zealand dollar is a major factor on the timing and pace of the Reserve Bank's interest rate hikes, and the Treasury sees a stronger exchange rate than in December, depreciating in 2017 and 2018.

English said inflation is probably slower than expected with annual growth of 4 percent and will come under greater scrutiny in the coming year.

"Inflationary pressures are a bit more moderate than might be expected and you'll see the debate unfolding over the next few months before Christmas as there's discussion about the Reserve Bank's interest rate track," he said.

The Reserve Bank has signalled it will continue to raise interest rates in a bid to keep inflation near the mid-point of its 1 percent to 3 percent target inflation, and the Treasury forecasts the 90-day bank bill, seen as a proxy for the OCR, rising to 4.3 percent in 2015 and 5.3 percent by 2018.

"Although 90-day interest rates are expected to be neutral at around 4.8 percent, further increases may be required to offset the upward price pressure generated by the projected fall in the exchange rate and to keep inflation expectations anchored close to 2 percent," the BEFU said.

The Treasury estimates the government's tighter fiscal policy relative to a neutral stance reduced inflationary pressure over the coming four years, allowing the OCR to be about 50 basis points lower by 2018, according to the Fiscal Strategy Report.

(BusinessDesk)

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines

 

BusinessDesk: SkyCity Lifts Minimum Convention Centre Investment To $430M

SkyCity Entertainment Group, the casino operator, has lifted the minimum it will invest in the Auckland International Convention Centre to $430 million and said total costs including land may be $450 million to $470 million. More>>

Statistics: Drop In Dairy Prices Leads Fall In Exports

Total goods exports fell $240 million (5.5 percent) to $4.2 billion in April 2015 compared with April 2014, Statistics New Zealand said today. More>>

BusinessDesk: APN's NZME Sees Future In Paywalls, Growth In Digital Sales

APN News & Media has touted a single newsroom concept for its NZME unit in New Zealand, similar to what Germany's Die Welt uses, saying an 'integrated sales proposition' is helping it win market share, including ... More>>

Labour Party: Global Milk Prices Now Lowest In 6 Years

The latest fall in the global dairy price has brought it to the lowest level in six years and shows there must be meaningful action in tomorrow’s Budget to diversify the economy, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “Dairy prices ... More>>

BusinessDesk: NZ Inflation Expectations Creep Higher In June Survey

May 19 (BusinessDesk) - New Zealand businesses lifted their expectations for inflation over the next two years, sapping any immediate pressure on the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates, and prompting the kiwi dollar to jump higher. More>>

BusinessDesk: Lower Fuel Costs Drive Down NZ Producer Input, Output Prices

May 19 - Producer input and output prices fell in the first quarter, mainly reflecting lower fuel costs and weakness in prices of meat and dairy products. More>>


Media: Fairfax Media NZ Announces Senior Editorial Team

Fairfax Media New Zealand has today confirmed its new editorial leadership team, as part of a transformation of its newsrooms aimed at enhancing local and national journalism across digital and print. More>>

Science: Flavonoids Reduce Cold And Cough Risk

Flavonoids reduce cold and cough risk Research from the University of Auckland shows eating flavonoids – found in green tea, apples, blueberries, cocoa, red wine and onions – can significantly reduce the risk of catching colds and coughs. The research, ... More>>

BusinessDesk: RBNZ House Alert Speech The Catalyst For Government Action

Prime Minister John Key all but conceded that pressure from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand for concerted action on rampant Auckland house prices was one of the main catalysts for the government's weekend announcements about tightly ... More>>

BusinessDesk: How To Fall Foul Of The New Housing Tax Rules: Tips From IRD

Just because you rented out your investment property doesn't absolve you from paying tax, says the Inland Revenue Department in a summary of commonly made mistakes by non-professional property investors when it comes to their tax liability.More>>

Legal: Superdiversity Law, Policy And Business Stocktake Announced

Mai Chen, Managing Partner at Chen Palmer New Zealand Public and Employment Law Specialists and Adjunct Professor of Law at the University of Auckland, today announced the establishment ... More>>

Housing: More House Price Gains Expected

House price expectations remain high, with a net 56% of respondents expecting house prices will increase. Fears of higher interest rates are fading, consistent with the RBNZ’s signals this year. Affordability and a lack of houses for ... More>>

Get More From Scoop

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Business
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news