Video | Agriculture | Confidence | Economy | Energy | Employment | Finance | Media | Property | RBNZ | Science | SOEs | Tax | Technology | Telecoms | Tourism | Transport | Search

 


Construction activity again pushes Cantometer to fresh high

Media release

ASB Cantometer Index

EMBARGOED until 5am Wednesday 30 July

Construction activity again pushes Cantometer to fresh high

The ASB Cantometer rose to a fresh high of 1.6 in July.

Non-residential building consents continue to improve while dwelling consent issuance could be starting to plateau.

Continued recovery in Canterbury’s tourism sector.

The Cantometer index rose to a fresh high of 1.6 in July (versus the previous high of 1.5 in June).

“Construction demand remains strong, and continues to be a key driver of economic growth in the region,” says ASB Chief Economist Nick Tuffley. “Particularly encouraging is the lift in non-residential building consents, reflecting continued earthquake rebuilding activity and higher business confidence.”

“Construction growth has flowed through to stronger demand in other areas” says Mr Tuffley. “Car registrations lifted 33% over the past year, as consumers feel more confident about making big-ticket purchases.”

The region’s tourism industry also continues to recover. Mr Tuffley explains, “The high number of passenger numbers passing through Christchurch Airport bodes well for the region’s tourism industry.”

There are emerging signs that dwelling consent issue in Canterbury may be starting to flatten.

“A further softening in the Housing sub-index this month is a reflection of the fall in the number of house sales. While house prices in Christchurch continue to increase and are 7.3% higher for the year to March, the pace of annual house price growth is sitting just below the national average.”

Outlook

Construction growth should continue to lead Canterbury economic activity over the next couple of years, says Mr Tuffley.

“We expect the earthquake rebuild will continue to encourage workers to move to Canterbury, as well as boost further employment demand.”

About the Cantometer

The Cantometer is designed to summarise activity in Canterbury. The study takes a range of publicly available regional economic data, which are standardised and aggregated into a summary measure. The index has been rebased to zero in June 2010 (the end of the quarter immediately preceding the first earthquake) such that a positive number represents activity being above pre-earthquake levels.

Along with the aggregate Cantometer index, there are five sub categories: Construction, Housing, Employment, Consumer spending and Miscellaneous*.

These sub-indices will provide some insight into which sectors are driving the rebuild activity at a given point in time.

For most activity the data reference the level of activity. However, when incorporating wages and house prices into the index we believe levels are less informative. Instead the index uses prices relative to the rest of the country.

An increase in relative prices is a signal for resources to be reallocated to the Canterbury region.

The historical Cantometer series represented on the charts is a simple average of the complete set of data for each month.

*The miscellaneous category includes electricity, car registrations, guest nights and permanent and long-term net migration. A common factor driving these areas will be population growth, and we expect all these indicators to increase as the rebuild gathers momentum.

If you would like to receive ASB updates and reports by email: https://reports.asb.co.nz/register/index.html

ENDS

Embargoed_ASB_Cantometer_July_2014.pdf

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines

 

Economic Update: RBNZ Says Rate Cut Seems Likely

The Reserve Bank will likely cut interest rates further as a persistently strong kiwi dollar makes it difficult for the bank to meet its inflation target, it said. The local currency fell. More>>

ALSO:

House Price Action Plan: RBNZ Signals National Lending Restrictions

The central bank wants to cap bank lending to property investors with a deposit of less than 40 percent at 5 percent and restore the 10 percent limit for owner-occupiers wanting to take out a mortgage with a deposit of less than 20 percent, according to a consultation paper released today. More>>

ALSO:

Sparks Fly: Gordon Campbell On China Steel Dumping Allegations

No doubt, officials on the China desk at MFAT have prided themselves on fashioning a niche position for New Zealand right in between the US and China – and leveraging off both of them! Well, as the Aussies would say, of MFAT: tell ‘em they’re dreaming. More>>

ALSO:

Loan Sharks: Finance Companies Found Guilty Of Breaching Fair Trading Act

Finance companies Budget Loans and Evolution Finance, run by former 1980s corporate high-flyer Allan Hawkins, have been found guilty of 106 charges of breaching the Fair Trading Act for misleading 21 borrowers while enforcing loan contracts. More>>

ALSO:

Post Panama Papers: Govt To Adopt Shewan's Foreign Trust Recommendations

The government will adopt all of the recommendations from former PwC chairman John Shewan to increase disclosure and introduce a register for foreign trusts with new legislation to be introduced next month. More>>

ALSO:

The Price Of Cheese: Cheddar At Eight-Year Low

Food prices decreased 0.5 percent in the year to June 2016, influenced by lower grocery food prices (down 2.3 percent), Statistics New Zealand said today. Compared with June 2015, cheese prices were down 9.5 percent, fresh milk was down 3.9 percent, and yoghurt was down 9.2 percent. More>>

ALSO:

Financial Advisers: New 'Customer-First' Obligations

Goldsmith plans to do away with the current adviser designations which he says have been "unsatisfactory" in that some advisers are obliged to disclose potential conflicts of interest and act in their customers' best interests, but others are not. More>>

ALSO:

Get More From Scoop

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Business
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news