Video | Agriculture | Confidence | Economy | Energy | Employment | Finance | Media | Property | RBNZ | Science | SOEs | Tax | Technology | Telecoms | Tourism | Transport | Search

 


Continued US Dollar strength keeps Kiwi on the ropes

Prospect of continued US Dollar strength keeps Kiwi on the ropes.


By Garry Dean (Sales Trader, CMC Markets New Zealand)

The weekend’s gathering of global central bankers at Jackson Hole has reinforced the different challenges facing major economy’s at present, and endorsed the view of a stronger US Dollar. Fed Chair Janet Yellen acknowledges the improving unemployment rate, but remains cautions given the significant slack in the labour market, the low level of participation, high part-time workers and lack of pressure on wages. That said, her address on the weekend was less dovish than expected, and traders seized on her comment that rates may need to rise sooner than expected if the labour market recovers faster than anticipated. This has propelled the US Dollar to levels not seen in almost a year, continuing to keep the Kiwi under pressure.

In contrast, ECB President Mario Draghi’s speech confirmed the ECB stands prepared to respond with all its available tools should inflation drop further, suggesting QE style stimulus is increasingly likely. European equity markets have responded to this dovish address with rallies of close to 2% overnight. Not surprising then to see Euro gap below 1.3200 at yesterday’s open, with the Kiwi losing half a cent in turn. RBNZ intervention rumours seem unfounded, the Kiwis decline merely reflecting the trader assessment that US rate hikes are drawing nearer, and the US dollar has potential to appreciate further in this environment. This suggests Kiwi resistance will again be solid at 0.8400, with key medium-term support seen at 0.8260.

The level of the TWI will be of growing interest to the RBNZ, as we open this morning at 78.80. This is well below the 79.7 September projection detailed in the June MPS, and also below the 79.0 December projection. The MPS for September will be a balancing act, as the RBNZ weigh last week’s large PPI declines, falling RBNZ inflation expectations and weaker dairy prices with the inflationary impact of increasing demand pressures from surging immigration and now a weaker exchange rate. The NZD/AUD cross has broken below the psychological 0.9000 level, but now faces major support at 0.8930. This was a key level of resistance throughout the Aug – Nov period last year, and should provide solid support now, with the downside move in this cross looking accentuated at present.

ends

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines

 

R18: The Warehouse Group Praised For Removing Games

The decision by New Zealand’s largest retailer The Warehouse Group (TW Group), to withdraw stocks of the latest version of Grand Theft Auto V (GTA V) and other R18 games, has been praised by advocacy group Stop Demand Foundation. More>>

ALSO:

Air NZ Wine Awards: Victory For Villa Maria As Pinot Noir Thrills

It was a night to remember as Villa Maria Estate picked up one of the highest accolades of the evening, the O-I New Zealand Reserve Wine of the Show Trophy, at the 28th Air New Zealand Wine Awards. The Villa Maria Single Vineyard Southern Clays Marlborough ... More>>

ALSO:

Future Brighter Money: RBNZ Releases New Bank Note Designs

New Zealand’s banknotes are getting brighter and better, with the Reserve Bank today unveiling more vibrant and secure banknote designs which will progressively enter circulation later next year. More>>

ALSO:

Commerce: Supermarket Inquiry Finds No Breaches By Countdown

The Commerce Commission inquiry into anti-competitive behaviour by Countdown supermarkets, alleged by former Labour Party MP Shane Jones, has found nothing to warrant prosecution, although it warns supermarkets to take care in the way they communicate... More>>

ALSO:

Crown Accounts: English Flags ‘Challenge’ To Budget Surplus

Finance Minister Bill English is warning next month’s half yearly fiscal and economic update from the Treasury may not forecast a budget surplus, saying that returning the government’s accounts to surplus in 2015 will be “a challenge”, given the decline in commodity prices and weak global inflation. More>>

ALSO:

March 2015: Netflix To Launch In Australia And New Zealand

World’s Leading Internet Television Network to Offer Original Series, Movies, Documentaries, Stand-Up Comedy Specials and TV Shows for Low Monthly Price More>>

ALSO:

Price Of Cheese (Is Up): Dairy Product Prices Fall To Five-Year Low

Dairy product prices fell in the latest GlobalDairyTrade auction to the lowest level in more than five years, led by declines in rennet casein and skim milk powder. More>>

ALSO:

Get More From Scoop

 
 
Standards New Zealand

Standards New Zealand
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Business
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news