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Growth prospects look promising in face of int'l risks


Date 8 December 2016

Growth prospects look promising in face of international risks

The prospects look promising for New Zealand’s economic expansion to continue in the face of considerable international uncertainties, Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler said today.

Speaking to the Development West Coast Conference in Greymouth, Mr Wheeler said that in many respects the economy is performing well.

“Relative to the trends over the past two decades, New Zealand is experiencing stronger economic growth, lower inflation, and a lower unemployment rate – even with record levels of labour force participation. The Achilles heel of many New Zealand expansions – a large current account deficit – has not eventuated.

“However, not everything is as positive. The overall expansion, now entering its eighth year, is weaker than other post-WWII expansions. GDP growth on a per capita basis has been slow and labour productivity growth has been disappointing. House price inflation is much higher than desirable and poses concerns for financial stability, and the exchange rate is higher than the economic fundamentals would suggest is appropriate.”

Mr Wheeler said that, in the absence of major unanticipated shocks, prospects look good for continued strong growth over the next 18 months, driven by construction spending, continued migration, tourist flows, and accommodative monetary policy. Supply disruptions associated with the Kaikoura earthquake are unlikely to have a major impact on overall economic growth, while some increase in freight costs and construction cost inflation is likely.

“Our November 2016 Monetary Policy Statement forecasts show annual real GDP growth of around 3¾ percent over the next 18 months, with inflation approaching the mid-point of the target band, the unemployment rate continuing to decline, and the current account deficit remaining within manageable levels.

“The low point for CPI inflation has probably passed and, supported by the improvement in global commodity prices in recent months, we expect the December quarter 2016 CPI data to confirm that annual CPI inflation is moving back within the 1 to 3 percent target band.

Mr Wheeler said that New Zealand will enter 2017 with considerable political and economic uncertainties.

“The greatest threat to the expansion lies in possible international political and economic developments and their implications for the global trading environment. The main domestic risk – and one that could be triggered by developments offshore – is a significant correction in the housing market. Numerous measures indicate that New Zealand house prices are significantly inflated relative to usual valuation indicators.”

“As has been the case in several other countries, monetary policy has been made more challenging in New Zealand by low global inflation and zero or negative policy rates in several major economies. This has put downward pressure on our interest rate structure and contributed to asset price inflation and upward pressure on the New Zealand dollar. This trend may finally be turning.

“At this stage, global and domestic developments do not cause us to change our view on the direction of monetary policy as outlined in the November MPS. We expect monetary policy to continue to be accommodative, and that the projected policy settings will help generate sufficient growth to have inflation settle near the middle of the target range.”

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