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HiFX morning Update, September 26 2018

NZDUSD 0.6648 0.1%
NZDEUR 0.5648 0.0%
NZDGBP 0.5043 -0.4%
NZDJPY 75.08 0.3%
NZDAUD 0.9168 0.2%
NZDCAD 0.8610 0.2%
GBPNZD 1.9829 0.4%

The NZD made small gains overnight, and the USD drifted lower ahead of Thursday mornings (6am NZ time) next dose of US Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening. The markets will be keenly focused on the Fed’s view on the US economy as well as guidance for rates for next year.

US President Trump told the United Nations that the trade deficit with China “is just not acceptable.” A Chinese official said it was difficult to proceed with trade talks while the US was putting “a knife to China’s neck.” It doesn’t appear trade tensions are going to reduce anytime soon.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi expressed confidence in euro zone inflation and wage growth – the EUR rose in response.

Emerging markets remain on the rack.

The domestic calendar has NZ trade balance at 10:45am, followed by ANZ Business Confidence figures at 1pm. Business Confidence has been dire of late – it will be interesting to see if this trend continues.

The RBNZ will be holding the OCR (official cash rate) at 1.75% tomorrow and is likely to reiterate its dovish outlook. The RBNZ will continue to be concerned with the low level of inflation, global trade tensions, and risks of an NZ economic slowdown.

Global equity markets were mixed on the day - Dow -0.2%, S&P 500 -0.1%, FTSE +0.7%, DAX +0.2%, CAC +0.1%, Nikkei +0.3%, Shanghai -0.6%.

Gold prices are slipped 0.2% to USD$1,199 an ounce, while WTI Crude Oil prices were flat at US$70.80 per barrel.


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