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International migration uses new official measure

25 January 2019

The outcomes-based measure of migration, with final and provisional estimates, is now the official way we measure international migration into and out of New Zealand, Stats NZ said today.

The results from this new measure build on earlier developments and the outcomes data released from May 2017. These developments enabled the removal of the departure card.

“Using the outcomes measure of migration statistics is the way forward. We are using information from border crossings to measure how long people actually spend in or out of New Zealand, rather than the intentions people stated on their passenger cards,” population insights senior manager Brooke Theyers said.

“We now have a more accurate measure of migration, which is important for understanding population dynamics.”

International migration: November 2018 has more information about the outcomes measure and further explains its differences from the previous intentions-based measure.

Comparing the two measures for the year ended October 2018

The intentions-based permanent and long-term (PLT) net migration estimates concluded in October 2018 with the removal of the departure card. Those estimates are compared here with the new October 2018 outcomes-based estimates.

For the year ended October 2018, the outcomes data indicated a provisional net migration gain of 45,200 (± 1,200). In comparison, the intentions measure (PLT migration) indicated a net gain of 61,800.

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“Outcomes-based net migration estimates (arrivals minus departures) are sometimes higher, and sometimes lower, than intentions-based PLT net migration estimates. In recent years, net migration using outcomes has been lower than for intentions,” Mrs Theyers said.

“In comparison, outcomes-based arrival and departure estimates are consistently higher than the intentions-based PLT estimates.”

The outcomes-based measure indicates the recent peak in net migration was around July 2016. This is a year earlier than the intentions-based peak in July 2017. However, other historical peaks and troughs are much closer for the two measures.

The difference in the measures relates to what people stated they intended to do when they arrived in or left New Zealand, compared with how long they actually spent in or out of New Zealand.


Text alternative for figure 1, migration estimates (thousands) by direction, rolling annual, year ended December 2001 to October 2018

The differences between the two migration measures can also be seen, for example, in age groups, and for New Zealand citizens compared with non-New Zealand citizens.

Differences in net migration measures for age groups

Difference between the two measures is most noticeable in net migration at ages 20–29 years (see figure 2). These age groups show the largest gap between the two measures.

“The differences we see in net migration between the two measures are not constant from year to year. They vary according to the volume and make-up of arrivals and departures each year,” Mrs Theyers said.

This shows the value of the outcomes-based measure – it’s a more accurate measure of migration, which will flow through into many other data uses, including official population estimates.

Generally, the outcomes and intentions net migration figures are similar. However, the differences for young adults reflect the students and working-holiday makers at those ages. How long they stay in, or away from, New Zealand wasn’t always perfectly captured by passenger cards, especially when they made several trips to and from New Zealand during their cumulative stay.


Differences in direction measures for New Zealand and non-New Zealand citizens

There is a gap between the two measures for arrivals and departures, especially for non-New Zealand citizens – the outcomes-based measure is higher for both arrivals and departures. In comparison, the measures are closer for New Zealand citizens’ arrivals and departures.

Information on individual country of citizenship is available in Infoshare.

Text alternative for figure 3, Migration estimates (thousands) by direction and citizenship, rolling annual, year ended December 2001 to year ended October 2018

Although there are differences in migrant estimates when comparing outcomes with intentions, the overall trend of migrant arrivals and departures is similar for both measures.

More information

See Outcomes versus intentions: Measuring migration based on travel histories.

See Migration Data Transformation or email info@stats.govt.nz for more information.

The Government Statistician authorises all statistics and data we publish.

For more information about these statistics:
• Visit International migration: November 2018
• See Net migration trending down
• See CSV files for download

ends

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